Cubs Have Reportedly Had ‘Preliminary Talks’ with Mariners on Nico Hoerner Trade

Very interesting and not entirely unsurprising news on the trade front as Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the Cubs and Mariners have had “preliminary talks” on a Nico Hoerner trade. There are all sorts of qualifiers here, from Hoerner’s recent surgery and recovery timeline to the fact that the Mariners’ preference is to add a pair of corner infielders. The note about Hoerner was included near the end of Jude’s piece, which focused primarily on Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm.

The Hoerner talks are credible though and have been either rumored or speculated for a little while now, plus we know the Cubs have signaled their willingness to move their Gold Glove second baseman. But Hoerner alone isn’t going to get the Cubs the cost-controlled starter they want — specifically righties George Kirby or Logan Gilbert — even if the Mariners are willing to trust he’ll be ready fairly soon after Opening Day. And even if his rehab does go swimmingly, Hoerner’s middling arm strength and decided lack of pop make him a very poor candidate for the hot corner.

Still, the match between two teams that both prefer to go the trade route versus paying premium dollars for free agents is impossible to dismiss. It seems to me that a far better fit would involve some combination of Isaac Paredes, Michael Busch, James Triantos, Javier Assad, and Jordan Wicks. The Cubs should be willing to move Paredes with Matt Shaw coming up, especially if they agree with Mike Scioscia‘s assessment of their top prospect’s defensive acumen at the hot corner.

It’s going to take quite a haul to pry either Kirby (26 with four years of control) or Gilbert (27, three years) from a team that understandably wants to keep its cheap, young rotation intact. Gilbert will get a decent raise in arbitration over his $4.05 million salary after a 2024 campaign that saw him post a 3.23 ERA with 220 strikeouts and just 37 walks over a career-high 208.2 innings. Kirby will likewise receive a good bump, but will only be around $5-6 million.

The hard-throwing righty had a career-worst 3.53 ERA with 179 strikeouts and 23 walks over 191 innings in 2024. That “worst” part was a joke because he’s been incredibly consistent and was just barely off his previous marks. What I like most about Kirby, and also Gilbert, is the willingness to beat hitters in the zone. Both put up decent strikeout numbers, but it’s the ability to avoid beating themselves with free passes that really stands out.

Any kind of deal for either of them is going to hurt…a lot. But the same is true for Garrett Crochet, for whom the Cubs are believed to be serious bidders in a trade from the South Side. At least with Mariners, the Cubs will have the buffer of physical distance should things not look like a steal over time. And while it’s possible some of this is being puffed up to aid in leverage one way or the other, I do believe this smoke is legitimate.

I’m not sure we’d see anything of this magnitude come to fruition as soon as the Winter Meetings, but I fully expect the rumors to be flying rapidly. That could mean we start hearing more about the Marlins as they look to deal from their pitching depth as well. The Rays are also likely to come up. This Seattle thing has had legs for a while, though, and I think we start seeing real movement in the market once Juan Soto signs.