Cubs’ Reported Interest in Luis Castillo Could Indicate Cody Bellinger Trade Not Just Salary Dump

As is the case every year around the Winter Meetings, this is another case of fitting together hypothetical puzzle pieces to reveal an image that might never come to fruition. Trade rumors are flying around like crazy and it’s easy to get dismissive, but it’s important to remember that most of the talks between baseball executives amount to nothing. For every deal that actually gets done, there are dozens that fall apart at various stages of discussion. Which is to say that most of the rumors out there probably have at least a kernel of truth, and that’s what we’re looking at right now.

Let’s first play a little catch-up for those who may not have been following along over the last few days. There have been multiple reports of the Cubs engaging with teams on both Nico Hoerner and Cody Bellinger, with the Mariners emerging as a potential landing spot for one or both players. Bellinger is a better positional fit for a team seeking a first baseman, but his $32.5 million guarantee and potential to earn $52.5 million over two years might not work for a team operating under more of a draft-and-develop model.

Unless, that is, trading Bellinger is more about swapping salary than simply dumping it. While the Cubs would certainly like to free up a little payroll space, their primary goal in moving the versatile veteran is to clear space for young players to come up. The front office had been hoping he’d opt out to save a little time and effort, not to mention money, but now they need to pivot in order to create roster flexibility and depth. That’s where Seattle comes in.

“Lot of rumor our there and I made some calls today, and there’s some smoke here,” David Kaplan noted during his Rekap Rush Hour on Thursday afternoon. “We’ll see if there’s fire. Cubs reportedly looking at a high-end starting pitcher via trade, not in free agency, and are reportedly involved in trade talks with the White Sox on Garrett Crochet and the Mariners on Luis Castillo.”

Castillo is very familiar to Cubs fans as a longtime Reds pitcher and he’s easily the most expendable member of a very strong rotation that features four other starters who are all under 28 years old. That quartet of Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and George Kirby should combine to earn roughly $16 million in 2025, which is only two-thirds of what the Mariners are set to pay Castillo alone ($24.15M).

The 32-year-old righty has at least three years remaining on a five-year, $108 million deal that carries a $21.6 million AAV and a $25 million vesting option for the 2028 season. He can trigger that option with 180 innings in 2027, a mark he’s reached twice in the last four years. Castillo was down a bit this past season and his average fastball velocity of 95.6 mph was the lowest of his career, but you know a dude has been really good when a 3.64 ERA and 24.3% strikeout rate are disappointing.

This seems like it could be a deal that helps both teams satisify needs while keeping money somewhat even. The Cubs might not have to offset any of Bellinger’s salary because of Castillo’s higher overall guarantee, and there could be some lower-end prospects involved as well. Heck, the Mariners might actually need to mitigate some of Castillo’s remaining salary. Were this deal to go down, and that’s admittedly a longshot as all these reports and rumors are, the Cubs would likely seek to move Javier Assad in this or another transaction.

Replacing Assad and Kyle Hendricks with Castillo and Matthew Boyd would be a significant upgrade, plus they’d still have ample high-end depth in Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and — fingers crossed so hard that he’s truly healthy — Cade Horton. Even though Castillo’s K-rate in 2024 was near a career-low, it would have tied Justin Steele for second on the team behind Shota Imanaga (25.1%). Castillo’s excellent 6.5% walk rate would fall behind only Imanaga (4.0%) and Jameson Taillon (4.9%), and his decreased fastball velocity was still at least three ticks higher than any regular member of the Cubs’ rotation in 2024.

Landing Crochet would be a sexier move, but Castillo seems like a far more realistic target both in terms of mutual need and the reduced or eliminated prospect cost. Does that mean I think it’ll happen? No, but I think these are the kinds of moves the Cubs will be looking at as the Winter Meetings figure to see an uptick in actual player movement.