Now, About This Report That the Cubs Are ‘Determined’ to Trade Seiya Suzuki

I can usually find ways to rationalize even some of the more outlandish rumors that crop up, but the latest report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post has me scratching my head. He opens on a very strong note, saying the Yankees should pursue Cody Bellinger whether they sign Juan Soto or not. Maybe it’s just because I’ve been saying for a long time that a Bellinger-Yankees pairing is a great fit, but I really think this one might have legs.

We also know that the Cubs are actively working to move Bellinger, whether it’s the Yankees or one of at least two other teams that have inquired about him. Bob Nightengale called their urgency in this endeavor the “worst-kept secret” of the GM Meetings in November, though he may have embellished a bit. There’s no doubt the front office would be happy to free up space by dealing Bellinger, but I’m confounded by what Sherman adds here.

“The Cubs are determined to trade either Bellinger (due $27.5 million in 2025 with a $25 million player option in 2026 or $5 million buyout), or Seiya Suzuki (two years at $36 million) to reallocate that money elsewhere, a source familiar with Chicago’s thinking told The Post.”

I have trouble making sense of this for a number of reasons, the first of which is that Suzuki’s full no-trade clause gives him all the control when it comes to the destination. Any team interested in his services, and there would be several if he was really being shopped, obviously knows the Cubs have zero leverage and would thus be able to play hardball. The other issue is that Suzuki is arguably the best hitter on a team that will need to add offense as it is.

Finally, we’re talking about a guy whose $18 million AAV is the furthest thing from prohibitive. Freeing it up would be more than enough to target another catcher and a reliever, but that wouldn’t come close to offsetting the resultant offensive deficit. This feels like one of those situations where Sherman is either doing someone a favor or is maybe misconstruing something he heard or was told. Now watch Suzuki be the dude who gets moved.

As for what the Cubs would like to do with the additional payroll space they’d get from a big trade, Bruce Levine dropped a few names. Relievers Kirby Yates — which is funny because we’ve talked about trying to get George Kirby from the Mariners — and Andrew Chafin (old friend alert!) were mentioned, along with catchers Danny Jansen and Carson Kelly. We looked at that latter pair recently, so I’ll refer you back the linked column for more details.

Update: As I was writing this, news broke that Jansen has agreed to a one-year, $8.5 million deal with the Rays. Pretty disappointed here, not gonna lie.

The thing that really bugs me here is the indication that the Cubs would need to free up money just to add any of these guys. Neither catcher figures to pull down more than $10 million AAV on a max two-year deal, and Chafin doesn’t figure to get much more than half of that heading into his age-35 season. He’s remained effective as he ages and keeps getting traded as a result, but I wonder if any speculation is based mainly on him quickly becoming a cult hero during his short stint with the Cubs in 2020 and ’21.

Yates is more than three years older, but he’s coming off a big season that saw him post 12.41 K/9 with a 1.17 ERA over 61 appearances for the Rangers. His devastating fastball/splitter combo was in full effect as he held opposing hitters to a .168 BABIP with some of the lowest barrel and hard-hit rates in the game. Even though he lacks elite velocity, he’s been a strikeout machine his whole career and boasts even career splits with a big reverse trend last season.

The Cubs have gone without a consistent lefty threat out of the bullpen for a while now and were using Mark Leiter Jr. in that role because his splitter made him a de facto southpaw. Yates could certainly fill that role, though his price tag may rise beyond what Jed Hoyer is comfortable spending on relievers. Chafin probably has a much lower price tag but is trending in the opposite direction, having just posted reverse splits against very even career marks. While a reunion would be fun, I think the upside is higher with Yates.

So, yeah, I guess I ended up following a rabbit trail there. To sum it all up, I think it’s silly to lump Suzuki with Bellinger in terms’ of the Cubs’ desire to move money and it’s even sillier to think they need to free up payroll space just to add complementary pieces. But who knows where everything will shake out. We may even see a deal or two materialize this weekend.