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The Rundown: Bregman Circus Jumps Shark, 6 Cubs Prospects Invited to Camp, Cease Linked to Mets
Baseball is king in a post-Super Bowl world, so it’s fitting that Cubs pitchers and catchers officially reported to the team’s spring training complex several hours before the big game. That said, the reporting date isn’t what it used to be because several players have been working out at Sloan Park since mid-January. Craig Counsell arrived yesterday and spoke with the press. Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins met with reporters, too, and Hoyer looked uncomfortable when Alex Bregman was mentioned.
Bregman doesn’t appear close to signing with anybody, though from my seat it looks more like agent Scott Boras is trying to avoid taking another loss in negotiations (see Pete Alonso). His tier-two players have struggled to get the deals he has demanded this year and last as nobody overvalues a player like the super agent, who still tries to peddle his schtick despite metrics contrary to his theatrics.
I still like Bregman for the Cubs, though it’s his glove I value more than the bat, even with a potential bump in power. Defense and pitching is the only way to get past the Dodgers if we assume Chicago is good enough to make the playoffs. They should, and many projection systems predict a 90-win season for Chicago’s North Side baseballers. That’s still no guarantee despite the mediocrity that reigns in the NL Central.
If you perfectly predict run differential for a team in a season, there's still error of ~6 wins. Credit: @brendan_cubs
Talked about it today on @WatchMarquee. A 90-win projection means you might land on 84 or 96.
Bregman, Cease, etc buffer against that error rate. Wheels up.… pic.twitter.com/V6r4OTriIt
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) February 9, 2025
I don’t doubt Hoyer will refuse to budge on any offer he’s made to Boras and Bregman. If the third baseman finds the deal he covets elsewhere, he should take it. The entire fiasco has figuratively jumped the shark. Bregman seems to be weighing dollars and cents against good old common sense, so if playing for the Tigers or Blue Jays is not his preference, he must adjust his demands. Further, if reports are true that he turned down separate six-year offers in his financial wheelhouse from the Astros and an unnamed team, he is either unsignable or needs to fire Boras. What athlete in his right mind would turn down a reported $156 million through his age-37 season just because it means taking a $2.4 million cut in AAV?
Maybe the Cubs are better off without that brand of stupidity manning third base. Boras needs a reality check too. If the $180-200 million deal he seeks is out there, he would have already grabbed it. I’m with Hoyer on this one. Bregman can take Chicago’s offer or play elsewhere.
Cubs News & Notes
- Hoyer said the Cubs will “focus on the guys we have in camp” and that Matt Shaw will have the opportunity to become the team’s starting third baseman.
- The president of baseball operations also said Shaw will have to earn his way onto the roster and into the starting lineup.
- Hoyer admits he’s feeling a little more pressure knowing his future after this season is uncertain.
- The front office isn’t ruling out any additional player signings. That doesn’t necessarily mean Bregman. Hawkins said he and Hoyer always want to improve the roster.
- Hawkins believes this year’s squad is vastly improved over last year’s.
- Six of Chicago’s top 100 prospects will be in camp this year. All are non-roster invitees except for Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara, who currently sit on the team’s 40-man roster.
- Cade Horton won’t be in big league camp, but he’s still on track to join the rotation later this summer if needed.
- The Cubs still haven’t spent the money they saved when they traded Cody Bellinger.
- Counsell said he talked to Seiya Suzuki about being DH and understands his frustration about being removed from right field. Over Suzuki’s final 37 starts in 2024, 36 came at the DH spot; he hit .326 with a .933 OPS, five home runs, and 18 RBI.
- Counsell also confirmed that Shōta Imanaga will start one of the two games against the Dodgers in Tokyo.
- First baseman Michael Busch is among 10 potential bust candidates for the upcoming season.
- Busch had one of the largest gaps between BA (.248) and XBA (.217, eighth percentile) of any qualified hitter and experienced a significant drop in power when facing lefties. Jon Berti is Chicago’s current backup, but he’s not a very experienced first baseman.
- Shaw, Kyle Tucker, and Ryan Pressly will be the biggest storylines to watch once camp is fully underway.
- The Cubs, Astros, Yankees, and Red Sox were the most active teams in a scorching offseason trade market.
Odds & Sods
The Mets are giving Nick Madrigal a chance to win a job this spring, but they have not given him a new bag.
Nick Madrigal arrives to Port St. Lucie pic.twitter.com/pxJzEB4jUP
— SNY (@SNYtv) February 10, 2025
Central Intelligence
- Milwaukee: The Brewers will honor Bob Uecker this season with a commemorative patch on their uniforms.
- St. Louis: The Cardinals front office is in an uncomfortable position after months of failed Nolan Arenado trade talks. The third baseman reported to camp yesterday though the club is still trying to move him.
- Cincinnati: The Reds announced that their uniforms will have a patch in honor of Pete Rose.
- Pittsburgh: Every MLB team has signed at least one free agent to a multi-year contract in the last three years except the Pirates. The last free agent that Pittsburgh signed for more than one season was Ivan Nova, who got a three-year deal worth $26 million in 2016. Just wait until Paul Skenes signs with the Dodgers in 2030.
Spring Training News & Notes
The Dodgers lead the current power rankings, not surprisingly.
Red Sox GM Craig Breslow hopes to add at least one more difference-maker to his team.
Alonso is being called the “biggest loser” of this offseason so far. Bregman is still in contention.
Dylan Cease is still available in trade, but the Padres’ asking price is reportedly very high. The Mets are still active on that front.
The Dodgers are reuniting with utility man Kiké Hernández on a one-year deal, while Tanner Scott has been named the team’s closer.
Kevin Kiermaier is joining the Blue Jays front office as a special assistant to the GM.
Bear Down
The NFL will launch its new season in about three weeks with plenty of free-agent action. We have a couple of new writers and a new EIC over at Bears Insider, so be sure to follow us there, too. I will continue to write at both sites.
Also, some friends of mine and I have built a podcast collective in Milwaukee. We’ll drop some Bucks/Packers/Brewers content similar to what CHGO does, but I’m hoping to create a weekly Cubs and Bears video podcast there, too. I first need to find a couple of analysts to work with me on both projects.
Extra Innings
Baseball is back, baby!
good morning, say it back. ☕️ pic.twitter.com/TuS1YFKct0
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) February 10, 2025
They Said It
- “I think [third base] will be a competition this spring for sure. I don’t think we are in the world of anointing a rookie and just giving him a job. [Shaw] is going to have to win a job. Certainly, there is a real opportunity there.” – Hoyer
- “In the three-plus years I’ve been here, this is certainly the most talented team.I think Jed [Hoyer] would say the same in terms of these last [few] years in his role.” – Hawkins
- “We’re in a place where we have a chance to be really good. We’re trying to maximize our resources within our budget to [ensure] that we can do that.” – Hoyer
- “I’ve been here for 14 years, and generally, in my career, I haven’t had much uncertainty. With uncertainty does come a level of anxiety. That would be a lie to say that it doesn’t. Has it caused some introspection along the way? I think that’s fair to say.” – Hoyer
- “Yes, Shota’s going to pitch in Japan. I think that’s mandated. I don’t think I have a choice.” – Counsell
Monday Walk-Up Song
The video lacks high definition, but the message is clear. Gentlemen, what are the four pillars?