Projecting Realistic Cubs Contract for Alex Bregman
Several reports have indicated that the Alex Bregman saga should end this week, just as teams begin showing up for spring training. The last update was that the Cubs have offered a four-year contract to the third baseman, with Bruce Levine mentioning the team has no interest in going up to six or seven years.
Back when this all started in November, Bregman was given a $21.05 million qualifying offer by the Houston Astros for a one-year deal. Turning that down was an easy decision given he was paid $30 million in 2024 and stood to land a nine-figure deal in free agency. However, turning down the QO means the Cubs — who exceeded the competitive balance tax penalty threshold in 2024 — will lose their second and fifth draft picks this summer plus $1 million in international free agency pool money should they sign Bregman.
Following their QO, the Astros made a six-year proposal worth $156 million that has been available all offseason. They have reported upped that amount, but Bregman obviously has yet to accept it and multiple reports (each word has a separate X link) out of Houston say the Astros are now out of the running. What’s more, they indicate Bregman will choose a short-term deal with opt-outs.
The Cubs reportedly have a creative deal of up to four years on the table, something Bregman might prefer as long as he’s got a high enough AAV and the ability to hit the market again at a time of his choosing. Considering the penalties the Cubs will have to pay due to the QO, a one-year deal makes little sense. For this reason, I’m projecting the Cubs’ offer will look something like this, with opt-outs after the second and possibly third year.
Total value: 5 years, $141 million ($28.2M AAV)
- Year 1 – $29M
- Year 2 – $29M (player opt-out)
- Year 3 – $29M (player opt-out
- Year 4 – $28M
- Year 5 – $26M
- Deal also includes 6-team no-trade clause and performance bonuses
Giving him $28.2 million AAV brings the Cubs very close to the luxury tax, but trading Nico Hoerner as has been widely presumed would create flexibility for additional in-season moves. The two-year guarantee is easily the most important part of this proposed contract for the Cubs, as losing the draft picks and IFA money for one year of Bregman is far too high a price to pay.
In any case, we should be finding out very soon where the former Astro is headed.