What’s Next as Jedward Scissorhands Slices & Dices Roster Ahead of Full Camp?

Alex Bregman is a member of the Boston Red Sox thanks to a three-year, $120 million the Cubs were never going to get close to. Well, they did actually match the total value, it was just over four years and almost certainly didn’t include opt-outs after each year. Not that those features in his contract with Boston really matter since there’s almost no way Bregman performs well enough to seek a new deal before this one is up. Kudos to Jed Hoyer for standing firm on his offer and not getting stupid in a bidding war.

As much as (almost) all of us want the Cubs to spend like big boys, dropping $40 million a year — even with some of it deferred — on Bregman would be a tremendous overpay when combined with the penalties tied to his qualifying offer. It also would have pushed payroll to the point where at least one trade would have been necessary. You can shout till you’re blue in the face about how that shouldn’t matter, but doing so foolishly ignores the reality of the situation. Accepting something isn’t the same as liking it.

The same goes for having mixed feelings about Bregman not joining the Cubs. I’ve made my stance on his acquisition all too clear, but the fact of the matter is that having more good players is helpful. If we ignore a lot of the context, Bregman would have made a tremendous addition for at least one year because his offensive profile is a great fit at Wrigley. But now that he’ll be playing 78 fewer games there than many had hoped, where will Hoyer turn to complete his roster?

After all, the Cubs still have around $30 million left below the first luxury tax penalty. While I don’t think they’ll come anywhere close to spending all of that, Hoyer has plenty of room to add another bat or arm.

The most obvious option among the remaining free agents is Justin Turner, who we connected to the Cubs about a month ago. Reports about their interest in him as a fallback to Bregman surfaced more recently and it makes sense that he could be in Mesa before long. Because Turner has played only 90 innings at third base in the last two seasons and hasn’t played the position well since 2019 or so, signing him doesn’t really impact Matt Shaw‘s trajectory.

If anything, Turner would serve as a backup to Michael Busch over at first base. The Cubs have precious little depth at that position, with Jon Berti and his zero innings at first currently standing as the de facto second-stringer. There’s even talk about trying Alexander Canario there in order to keep him busy with something other than just minor-league outfield reps. I’ve maintained that the Cubs have wanted to trade the outfielder for a while now but were thwarted by his offseason injury in late 2022, so adding a new position increases his value.

Trying Canario at first had the feel of a contingency plan for landing Bregman, but it could still be a viable pathway if Hoyer opts to circle the wagons and stand pat. Even though that’s the least sexy option by far, the Cubs still have the best projection in the NL Central and will have plenty of dry powder remaining at the deadline in terms of both prospects and cash. Assuming they’re in a position to buy, that is.

There’s a third possibility as well, one with more risk and probably a lot more upside than either of the other two. The Padres, who have reportedly been trying to shed salary, just signed Nick Pivetta to a four-year, $55 million deal that bumps their CBT payroll to nearly $259 million. That’s $18 million over the first penalty level, which could require them to move two significant salaries. Hey, look at that, Dylan Cease and Robert Suárez combine for around $23 million.

Then you consider how signing Pivetta costs the Padres their second pick in this summer’s draft and $500,000 in international bonus pool money. In addition to trimming some money from their books, they might want a way to replace the potential value of that pick. Making a deal for Cease alone would be tough to swallow since he’s only under contract through this season and Padres exec AJ Preller has held to an exorbitant asking price, but adding Suárez wouldn’t lower the cost. Not overall, anyway, though the value of the deal might be a little better due to his contract.

Any sort of package would have to begin with either Owen Caissie — who the Cubs got from the Padres in the Yu Darvish trade — or Kevin Alcántara and include one of Javier Assad or Jordan Wicks to replace the hole in San Diego’s rotation. Then you’re probably looking at Moises Ballesteros, James Triantos, or another top-10 prospect in addition to someone a little further down on the list. The Cubs might be able to haggle a discount since San Diego really can’t eat much salary if they want to avoid penalties.

Then again, maybe the Padres don’t care about the luxury tax at all. That might sound a little weird because we almost always tend to view things in light of the CBT, but it may be more a matter of actual payroll for a team that is still reeling from previous principal owner Peter Seidler’s death and subsequent infighting between his widow and two of his nine siblings. Robert Seidler, the eldest of those siblings, received unanimous support from MLB owners to be approved as the controlling party for the Padres.

Given the huge disparity between actual payroll and CBT figures, it’s reasonable to believe the concern lies more with the former. That idea is reinforced by the back-loaded nature of Pivetta’s contract, as he’ll earn just $4 million this season ($3 million signing bonus and $1 million salary) with figures of $19 million, $14 million, and $18 million over the next three years. He can opt out after the second, hence the drop between that and the third year.

We have to remember that the CBT figures are often just smoke and mirrors because they’re not what teams are truly paying. Pivetta’s deal gets them to around $207 million in actual payroll and the overage taxes will add about $3.5 million barring any other changes. So if the focus is more on keeping the number around $210 million, that can be done without having to move any big names. That would also mean there’s no reason for Preller to entertain a discount of any kind to move a pitcher or two.

Of course, they probably don’t have the willingness or ability to extend Cease and might see it as a good opportunity to make hay while the sun shines. Based on the huge bounty they’ve placed on him, however, a deadline deal feels more likely at this point.

Now that I’ve rambled far longer than initially intended, we should wrap this up. I’d say signing Turner is the most likely option, with standing pat coming in second. Knowing what we do about Hoyer’s quest for value, even during an offseason that has seen him stray from that path like never before, I would say he may back-burner a big Padres trade until the deadline.