Against All Odds: Carson Kelly’s Improbable Cycle
In a stunning offensive display, Chicago Cubs backup catcher Carson Kelly achieved a feat as rare as it is remarkable: he hit for the cycle last night. While hitting for the cycle is an uncommon occurrence in Major League Baseball, the odds of Kelly doing so were exceptionally low. Let’s examine the numbers.
According to available records, fewer than 400 cycles have been recorded since 1882. This achievement is often compared to the no-hitter in terms of rarity, solidifying its status as one of baseball’s most elusive accomplishments. The average MLB player’s probability of hitting for the cycle in a single game is estimated to be around 0.0059%.
However, the odds against Kelly achieving this feat were far more daunting.
Throughout his career, Kelly has amassed 1,815 plate appearances. Among those PAs, he’s hit 55 home runs, 3 triples, 72 doubles, and 232 singles, including his performance last night. Calculating the individual probabilities:
- Home run: 55 / 1815 = approximately 0.0303 (3.03%)
- Triple: 3 / 1815 = approximately 0.001653 (0.1653%)
- Double: 72 / 1815 = approximately 0.03967 (3.97%)
- Single: 232 / 1815 = approximately 0.1278 (12.78%)
To determine the combined probability of these independent events, we multiply the individual probabilities:
0.0303 * 0.001653 * 0.03967 * 0.1278 = approximately 0.000000254, or 0.0000254%.
This translates to odds of approximately 1 in 3,937,008!
Adding to the rarity, the last Cubs player to hit for the cycle was Mark Grace in 1993, highlighting the additional historical significance of Kelly’s accomplishment.
Carson Kelly is the first Chicago Cub to hit for the cycle since Mark Grace in 1993.
— Opta Analyst US (@OptaAnalystUS) April 1, 2025
To cap off the night, the Cubs secured a decisive 18-3 victory, making Kelly’s remarkable achievement even more memorable.
