Chicago Cubs Lineup (4/9/25): Familiar Batting Order, Imanaga on Bump
The Cubs enter Wednesday’s game tied for the MLB lead with nine wins and they’re up a game and a half in the division. This despite an 0-2 start in Japan that doomed their season. Did I mention they also have a +32 run differential that is 10 runs better than the next-closest team (Yankees)? I didn’t? Well, I’ll just have to correct that oversight next time.
One thing I’d like to note here since a Facebook reel from a recent Rant podcast has gone semi-viral is that playing well does not in and of itself excuse a lack of spending. One need look no further than the bullpen to see that adding more payroll in the form of high-end relievers might have the Cubs at 11-3 right now. Or maybe they’d be much worse and people would complain that you can’t buy championships. All I know is that the offense is doing a great deal of the heavy lifting.
That massive run differential is a product of the Cubs scoring 94 total runs, 16 better than the Yankees overall and 23 better than the Cardinals in the NL. Even considering they’ve played three extra games, the Cubs are scoring with the best of them. Now, if only their MLB-best 13% walk rate wasn’t being offset by persistent bullpen issues. The problem isn’t so much what’s happened so far, it’s looking out over the next 148 games and knowing the offense may not maintain this pace.
But hey, you didn’t come here to read about what will happen by the end of September or even this week. You’re here for some notes on the matchup. Shota Imanaga being on the bump should mean the ‘pen gets a bit of a rest, as he’s gone at least seven innings on exactly 91 pitches in each of his last two starts. He’s allowed a total of two runs on seven hits and two walks in those outings, and he’s struck out four in each. Seeing his walks drop from four to two to zero over three starts is very promising.
Ian Happ will lead off again in left, followed by Kyle Tucker in right and Seiya Suzuki at DH. Michael Busch cleans up at first, Dansby Swanson is at short, and Nico Hoerner plays second. Pete Crow-Armstrong patrols center, Matt Shaw is at third, and Miguel Amaya is behind the dish.
The Cubs are facing former longtime Reds righty Tyler Mahle, who is making his third start of the season. His first outing was an abbreviated affair, ending after just five outs because he walked four batters and had loaded the bases before giving way to Jacob Webb in a game the Rangers went on to win. Mahle was much better the last time out, tossing five scoreless innings with only one hit and two walks to five strikeouts.
Walks have not been an issue for him previously, but he’s had a lot of trouble staying healthy over the years. Persistent right shoulder trouble limited him to 120.2 innings with the Reds and Twins in 2022. His 2023 season ended early due to what was called a right arm posterior impingement and flexor pronator strain, after which he underwent elbow reconstruction that cost him most of 2024 as well. Today’s start will put him over 40 total innings over the last three seasons.
That limited action means it’s tough to know exactly what he’ll have in store for the Cubs. Typically a big-time fastball thrower, Mahle’s 93 mph ride-run heater makes up nearly 60% of his repertoire and has been his only plus offering over the years. The splitter was really good during his breakout 2021 campaign, but he seems to have lost the feel for it since. That wasn’t the case in his last start, though, so watch out for that one.
He has a tendency to hang both his mid-80s cutter and slider, but they have combined for less than 20% of his pitches over the last few years. The slider was thrown a lot more in ’23, but we’re only looking at five starts. Mahle has done a pretty good job against this Cubs roster, limiting them to a .234/.319/.359 slash with just one homer over 64 at-bats. Ironically, noted Reds-killer Ian Happ is just 2-for-23 with 12 strikeouts when facing Mahle.
That’s largely a function of the righty’s running fastball playing better against left-handed batters over his career. Well, in terms of batting average. The overall line is more split-neutral, with hitters from both sides having the same .318 OBP and right-handed hitters carrying a .323 wOBA that is just 10 points higher than their counterparts. This is a game the Cubs should win, but it’s tough to sweep good teams.
First pitch from Wrigley is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.
Going for the sweep today.
Watch it live on the Marquee Sports Network App. pic.twitter.com/KkTrucYWUT
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 9, 2025
