Chicago Cubs Lineup (4/12/25): Turner at 3B, Kelly Catching, Brown Bump Day

It’s like deja vu all over again as the Cubs face the same pair of Dodgers starters in LA as when these teams met in Tokyo to open the season. Last night went about as well as those matchups in Japan, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto dealing over six scoreless innings, but I’ve got a feeling about tonight. Part of that is my unwavering faith in Ben Brown, whose first action of the season came in that first Tokyo Series game as a piggyback starter.

Brown hasn’t looked all that good through three appearances, and his two starts have seen eight earned runs cross the plate over just nine innings of work. That said, his changeup could be a difference-maker if he starts throwing it more frequently, and his curve will be a weapon if he gets it dialed in. While most would think more movement is better, Brown’s death-ball is better when it’s closer to the middle of the induced-break plot.

That means he’s generating as little vertical and horizontal movement as possible, creating a look that is different from what hitters are used to. It could be a matter of intent, as Brown’s velocity is down about a tick on both the curve and four-seam. His cue for the curve is to “throw the crap out of it,” so maybe he just needs to…

His curve was among the best in the game last season, when it hugged the vertical line and never touched the shaded area for average movement of other right-handed pitchers. So far this season, his curve has wandered over with too much glove-side action. My first thought is that he’s a supinator who’s maybe cutting the curve just a touch, which makes sense when you see that his fastball is also more cutty than last year.

Getting his hand and arm action cleaned up just a touch could be the difference between Brown being lights-out or putting up outings his offense has to overcome. The Cubs really need him to figure it out because the Dodgers aren’t going to let him get away with another rough start like he has against the Padres.

The offense starts with Ian Happ in left, followed by Kyle Tucker in right and Seiya Suzuki at DH. Michael Busch remains in the cleanup spot at first base, Dansby Swanson is at short, and Justin Turner gets time at third in his old stomping grounds. His defense there has been suspect at best over the last few years, so let’s hope that doesn’t come back to bite the Cubs. Nico Hoerner is at second, Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, and Carson Kelly is catching.

After facing one Japanese righty with a high-90s heater and wicked splitter, the Cubs get a break by facing…another Japanese righty with a high-90s heater and wicked splitter. The difference, and the reason the Cubs should be able to scratch out some runs tonight, is that Roki Sasaki is not nearly as polished as his teammate. The youngster lit up the radar gun with multiple triple-digit fastballs in his season debut, but he lasted only three innings due to the timing and his five walks.

That trend continued in his next outing as he walked four with just two strikeouts over only 1.2 innings. Sasaki put up his longest start of the year against the Phillies last week, going four innings and striking out four with two walks, but he’s still on a pitch restriction and hasn’t yet gotten to 69 on the young season. His four-seam has excellent velo and good run, but he’s been a little erratic with it. Not nearly as wild as the forkball/splitter that has some knuckleball tendencies in terms of not knowing where it’ll end up, though.

That comes from an absurdly low average spin rate of 511 rpm, roughly one-third as much as Yamamoto’s offering. If the Dragon Fork is working, the Cubs could be in trouble. But only nine strikeouts to 11 walks so far, their “stubborn” plate approach should pay dividends in this one. Getting a win in LA would be huge as they get deeper into what might very well be the toughest stretch of the season.

First pitch from Chavez Ravine is at 8:10pm CT, a full hour earlier than last night, on Marquee and 670 The Score.

Night two in Tinseltown.

Watch the game live on the Marquee Sports Network App. pic.twitter.com/b7G0mpjM7W

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 12, 2025