Chicago Cubs Lineup

Chicago Cubs Lineup (4/20/25): Kelly Catching, Berti at 3B, Taillon Tossing

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanApril 20, 2025

Happy Easter to those who observe, and happy 4/20 to those who enjoy puffing the cheeba. I wonder if head groundskeeper Dan Kiermaier seeded the outfield with a cross of Bluegrass, Kentucky Bluegrass, Featherbed Bent, and Northern California Sinsemilla. The amazing stuff about it is that you can play nine innings on it in the afternoon, take it home, and just get stoned to the bejeezus-belt that night. Sounds like something Mark Grace might have enjoyed.

Wow, that was quite an opener. The only thing high about the Cubs lately has been their scoring, with warmer temps and favorable winds conspiring to help them drop bombs left and right. They continue to pace the rest of MLB with 143 runs, and their 34 homers trail only the Yankees (35) and Dodgers (36). What’s more, they have three of the game’s top fWAR performers in Carson Kelly, Kyle Tucker (both 1.4), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (1.3).

If they could just get more consistent performance from a bullpen that was once again cobbled together on a budget, this team could be special. The rotation has more or less held its own through an early schedule that has included only three games against sub-.500 teams, but stress will continue to accumulate as Justin Steele‘s absence weighs more heavily.

That means they’ll need to get better production from Jameson Taillon, who is facing Arizona for the second time this season. He allowed six earned runs on nine hits, which isn’t very nice, and struck out just one batter over 4.1 innings in his 2025 debut. He’s been better since then, striking out 17 with five walks over 17.1 innings, but he’s given up a homer in every start so far. Some of that improvement comes from the kick-change he’s been throwing a little more this season.

The new pitch is something he picked up over the winter at Tread Athletics, the pitching development powerhouse that also produced Cubs front office hire Tyler Zombro. This is something the Cubs have been incorporating with other pitchers as well, though you’ll see something different below from what you may have been exposed to during Tuesday’s Marquee broadcast of the Cubs/Padres game.

In trying to explain the kick, former ace Rick Sutcliffe displayed a modified split grip with the ball wedged between the index and ring fingers. He had his middle finger over the top of the ball, saying that the ball was supposed to kick off of it. In reality, the ball is gripped similar to a traditional circle change, but with a two-seam orientation and the middle finger spiked to a degree of the pitcher’s liking. That puts more pressure on the ring finger, which “kicks” the ball’s axis into more side spin to create depth.

The results aren’t staggering because we’re talking about a pitch Taillon throws very sparingly, but he’s getting 3+ inches more vertical drop on the change than in recent years. He’s also generating a 40% whiff rate on it after having averaged around 17% for his career previously. Taillon only uses it against left-handed hitters, but I’d like to see him do so more often and maybe even catch some righties off-guard too.

As long as he’s on his game, the bats have shown they can provide plenty of run support. Ian Happ has picked up the pace over the last week, collecting 11 hits with a 178 wRC+ out of the leadoff spot, and he’s out in left field as always. Tucker is in right as he continues to put together what would be the best season of his career, and Seiya Suzuki keeps proving haters wrong with a 159 wRC+ and six homers out of the DH spot. First baseman Michael Busch has five dingers and a 179 wRC+ as the cleanup hitter, giving the Cubs what might be the most potent trio in the game right now.

Dansby Swanson picked up a pair of knocks yesterday, both hit over 104 mph, and he’s the shortstop. Nico Hoerner‘s .307 average and overall solid play works well in the sixth spot and Crow-Armstrong is riding a seven-game extra-base hit streak that still hasn’t been enough to shake the foolish notion that he can’t hit. Kelly’s batting average almost matches the date, and would have if he’d played yesterday, but his timeshare behind the plate keeps him from racking up the PAs. Rounding out the lineup is third baseman Jon Berti.

They are facing righty Merrill Kelly, who got the win over Taillon in that aforementioned game by going 5.1 innings and allowing just one score on three hits and four walks. He only struck out one batter in what was a very frustrating effort for the Cubs, especially since Kelly’s changeup was not working well. Everything but his fastball and slider had negative value in that start, it’s just that the Cubs couldn’t capitalize.

Kelly has had one of the best offspeed pitches in the game over the last 2-3 seasons, but he seems to have lost the feel for it in the early going. It still appears to be getting good movement and he’s throwing it nearly a quarter of the time at around 88 mph, but something is amiss. What’s interesting, at least to me, is that he throws it harder than the average changeup despite having a fastball that sits just 91-92 mph.

The fastball is a big weakness for Kelly so far, and he’s gotten into a lot of trouble with the sinker as well. Part of the problem could be that the movement profiles of his sinker and change overlap more than in the past, which might not be bad if they had greater velo separation. If the 36-year-old pitches this afternoon like he has been so far, the Cubs should be able to touch him up.

First pitch was scheduled for 1:20pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score, but rain forced a 40-minute delay.

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanApril 20, 2025
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