Quantifying Hope: Cubs Carry 71% Playoff Odds into New York
It’s never a good thing to drop two games in a row, especially when one of those losses comes in spectacularly dreadful fashion, but it’s even worse when the follow-up is a trip to Citi Field. The Cubs never seem to play well there, and we have reason to believe Juan Soto could be about ready to resume his typical elite run production. On the bright side, the rest of the NL Central remains at least three games behind heading into Friday’s action.
That means the Cubs have maintained very strong 70.9% postseason odds — down from 79.5% on May 3 — despite the recent futility. The Cardinals have surged into a second-place tie with the Brewers on the strength of five straight wins, so it’ll be very interesting to see how they handle things if they remain competitive into the summer. With a rebuild looming and several veterans likely to be moved, they could find themselves in a very difficult spot with fans should they blow up a .500 or better team.
It still feels like the Reds are the team to watch, what with their Hall of Fame manager and bevy of young talent. The Brewers don’t seem to have the horses to compete, though they’ve managed to overcome that in previous seasons. All we can really say for sure about the NL Central is that the Pirates appear to be even worse than usual. Not only did they waste Paul Skenes at Triple-A for way too long last season, costing them a draft pick and a year of service time after he won Rookie of the Year, but now they’re wasting his talent in MLB.
The best solution for all involved is for the Pirates to trade Skenes to the Cubs for cash and a player to be named later. But in all seriousness, it sucks that he’s toiling away for a skinflint owner who will field a subpar team for a few years before forcing the front office to trade their ace to a contender.
Back to the Cubs, who have to play three in Queens before settling into what should be the easiest remaining schedule in the league. The rest of May looks like this: Marlins, White Sox, Marlins, Reds, Rockies, Reds. Cincinnati is the only one of those teams within eight games of .500, and they’re a game under themselves. Those squads are a combined 52 games under with a -184 run differential (the Rox are -109 all on their own. Barring a little papal interference, the Cubs should be able to rebound from any hiccups that could happen this weekend.
