Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/25/25): Happ Leads Off, Kelly Cleans Up, Brown on Bump
First, let me apologize to those who read these for in-depth matchup info. Not only is Sunday an early game with a late lineup due to the personnel moves, but the 109th running of the Indianapolis 500 is coming up this afternoon and I’m also heading to a birthday party for one of my nieces. Gonna keep this one short and sweet.
Ben Brown showed flashes of brilliance in his most recent start against the Marlins, but he sandwiched three good innings between two very bad ones. The big positive for me is that he threw his changeup a little more than he has been, getting one called and two swinging strikes with a pair of balls. The spin and ride were back up, however, indicating that he may have gone back to his old grip rather than what appeared to have been a kick version.
Alas.
Knowing how the ball flies at GABP, the Cubs are going to want to provide run support early and often. That wasn’t the case yesterday, when they just kept hitting hard liners to the warning track, but perhaps that means their due for a breakout. Ian Happ will lead off in left, and he sure could use a big day at the plate. Kyle Tucker is in right, Seiya Suzuki is the DH, and Carson Kelly cleans up at catcher. We’re going to see even more of that over the next two weeks and maybe longer now that Miguel Amaya has been placed on the IL.
Dansby Swanson is at short, Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Nico Hoerner is at third, and Justin Turner gets another start at first base after hammering his first homer of the season on Saturday. Matt Shaw collected a pair of doubles and will handle third base.
Update: Kelly has been scratched, so Reese McGuire will handle catching duties and bat ninth with everyone else moving up.
The adjusted lineup is due to facing lefty Nick Lodolo, who is riding a tremendous changeup to what is shaping up to be the best season of his short career so far. The strikeout numbers are way down, which would normally signal bad things, but he’s cut down on walks and homers as well.
Lodolo’s 93 mph fastball plays like a sinker, and it actually gets nearly as much arm-side run as his two-seam. It hasn’t gotten very good results, nor has his depthless curveball (~9 inches less drop than average), but the change has been fantastic. I can’t really figure out what’s different about the pitch that’s made it so much better than in previous seasons. The velocity, movement profile, and usage all look pretty much the same, and it’s been mediocre at best in the past.
The good thing is that left-handed batters won’t have to worry about it because he won’t throw it against them. All of his 205 changeups have been to righties, and only six of the 760 he’s thrown in his career have gone to lefties. That’s perhaps the most stark split I’ve seen from any pitch by any pitcher. Part of that is because Lodolo has faced almost six times as many right-handed batters, which is weird because his platoon splits aren’t at all drastic.
Left-handed batters generate a good deal less slug, but that’s it. The results have been heavily reversed this season, however, with lefties slashing .378/.405/.459 against him. And though they haven’t hit any of the six homers he’s allowed, they’re clearly doing well in other areas. I noted earlier that Lodolo doesn’t walk many batters, but he leads MLB with seven hit batters. Maybe the Cubs can lean into a few this afternoon.
First pitch is at 12:40pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.
Last one before we are back at @ofcwrigleyfield.
Watch the game live on the Marquee Sports Network app. pic.twitter.com/tCXgKHZGJ3
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 25, 2025
