The Rundown Lite: Ian Happ Bouncing Back, Potential Trade Chips, Injury Updates

Frequent readers have probably noticed that our regular Rundown feature has ostensibly disappeared, but I’ve been reluctant to usurp the name for even a one-off piece here and there in hopes that we’ll get it back. While hope remains for that eventuality, I figured I’d leverage it to get out a few nuggets ahead of an early game. First up is a man whose biggest flaw is that he isn’t on a Hall of Fame track.

Ian Happ‘s improved offense

The worst thing about having a decent-sized platform is that it grossly magnifies the breadth and volume of…interesting…takes on the Cubs and individual players. Happ is among the most frequent targets for vitriol and has been for the last several seasons, particularly after all those big trades shipped several beloved stars out of Chicago. There are a lot of fans who actually believe the three-time Gold Glove left fielder with a career 117 wRC+ is bad.

Seriously, they believe he should be shipped out of town regardless of his no-trade clause so his roster spot can go to [insert prospect here]. The two main knocks on Happ are that he’s streaky (have you followed baseball?) and that he’s not a perennial MVP candidate. That’s it. Maybe no one loved those folks enough to tell them that their wildly distorted expectations for him don’t define the quality of his play, so I guess I’ll have to do it.

Just because you thought Happ was going to be a first-ballot HOF’er who led the Cubs to five more World Series titles before riding off into the sunset doesn’t mean he’s bad for not doing so. He has never had a below-average offensive season, and only has two campaigns with lower than a 114 wRC+ (106 in 2018, 105 in ’21). Elite? No, but it’s sure as hell the mark of a solid performer.

With four homers in his last six games, Happ is getting back to what we’re used to seeing from him. The funny thing is that he was still better leading up to his oblique injury on May 9 (117 wRC+) than he has been since returning (109). That was mainly a matter of struggling upon his return, as he’s up to a 158 through 42 June plate appearances.

He’s an impact player, just don’t expect him to be a superstar and we’ll all be better for it.

Trade chips

I already noted the idea of trading Happ, which makes no sense due to his production and his NTC. While the Cubs could theoretically get him to waive it, the requisite circumstances would drastically reduce their partners and return. Besides, he’s 30 years old and has one more year left on a $20.33 million AAV extension. If the Cubs are making a deadline deal or two, they’ll need to use prospects as currency.

To that end, I was recently asked on X to rank a group of Cubs farmhands in terms of their likelihood to be traded. That’s not really in my wheelhouse because I’m not up on other teams’ systems well enough to know where they are weak. Even so, I’ve got some rudimentary thoughts.

Can you give your best guess in ranking Caissie, Alcantara, Triantos, Long, Bally, Rojas and Hernandez from most to least likely they’re moved at the deadline?

— Wrigley Anonymous (@WrigleyAnon) June 11, 2025

Due to his offensive surge and the fact that he’s not on the 40-man and is thoroughly blocked in Chicago, Jonathon Long seems like an obvious choice to go to the top of the list. I have also been leaning toward Owen Caissie being a strong candidate because he’s got big pop with an uncertain future in the organization. The only possible spot for him in the next 18 months is right field, and that’s if nothing works out with Kyle Tucker.

My belief is that the Cubs think a little more highly of Kevin Alcantara, even if that’s just a matter of his superior athleticism, so that could make Caissie more expendable. Former Bleacher Nation prospect guru Bryan Smith seconded the Long pick, especially since he’s a “pop-up” guy, and added Christian Hernandez. I think Moisés Ballesteros could be in play if the Cubs got serious with the Braves about Chris Sale, though concerns about positional limitations cut both ways with him.

As you look at the possibilities, where would you rank those prospects in terms of most/least likely to be moved?

Injury updates

The Cubs have been playing well despite the absence of several regulars, and it looks like they could be getting some of those players back by the end of the month. Shōta Imanaga made a rehab start in the Arizona Complex League on Monday, after which he’ll need at least two more outings at higher levels before he’s activated. That could put him back in Chicago the week of June 23.

There has been precious little news on Miguel Amaya, but he was expected to be out for 4-6 weeks when he hit the shelf on May 25. His timeline is similar to Imanaga’s, so he could be back in a couple weeks if all goes well. Porter Hodge had an oblique issue and then suffered a hip impingement, but he threw live BP with Triple-A Iowa on Tuesday and will need some rehab appearances before being activated. That could come as early as next week if his body responds well after throwing.

Eli Morgan and Javier Assad have kind of been forgotten men, with the former making just seven relief appearances and the latter throwing twice for Iowa. Morgan started throwing off the mound at the end of May and Assad began playing catch about two weeks ago, so both could be back before the All-Star break. The problem is where to fit them in, as the bullpen has been incredible lately.

Their 0.96 ERA over the last 30 days is the best in baseball by more than a full run, and their 2.73 FIP in that same time is also out in front by a wide margin. Hodge should get a spot back quickly, but I could see the Cubs taking their time with Morgan and Assad until they’re needed as injury replacements.

Whew, that’s more than I expected. Take care.