Quantifying Hope: Cubs at 88% Playoff Odds as Division Lead Grows

The Cubs went 4-5 on their recent road trip, yet still gained a half-game on the Brewers and Cardinals. Now, those two foes are facing off while the Cubs host the last-place Pirates. Even with Paul Skenes standing in their way, that 5.5-game division lead should continue to grow over the weekend. The Brewers got a fantastic debut from 23-year-old flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski on Thursday, so now we just have to hope the Cards can work out a split over the long series.

That link above is to The Rundown Lite, which (shocker) ran longer than expected. As such, and because there’s not much drama in the standings, I’m going to play catch-up before moving on to my daily lineup breakdown. Only the Mets (95.9%) and Dodgers (98,5) boast better odds on FanGraphs than the Cubs, which is a little odd given the competitiveness of the NL West.

While Jed Hoyer can’t take anything for granted, jumping out to a big lead will allow him to hone his focus as the trade deadline nears. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cubs try to jump the market, especially since bidding will get very heated in late July. Whether they’ve got their eyes on Chris Sale, Sandy Alcántara, or another top arm, any big trade is going to come with a hefty price tag.

External additions aside, reinforcements should be coming to the staff later this month as Shota Imanaga and Porter Hodge work their way back from the IL. Eli Morgan and Javier Assad should return by July-ish as well, though they’re not quite as impactful. All told, the Cubs are in a great spot and just need to keep taking care of business.