AP Photo/Matt Marton

The Rundown: Hoyer Provides Deadline Insight, Cubs & Brewers Stay Hot, Cardinals May Be Shifting Toward Fire Sale

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterJuly 20, 2025

“When Black Friday comes I’ll collect everything I’m owed. And before my friends find out I’ll be on the road.” – Black Friday by Steely Dan

One of my favorite things about Jed Hoyer is his ability to rely on capital analysis pricing models like he’s a CIO setting his quarterly budget. This quarter’s budget has been reserved for the upcoming trade deadline, and Hoyer, ever the archconservative, dropped a new term on us as emphasized below in his typical deadpan fashion.

“I always use the ’21 Braves as the example,” Hoyer said. “They basically went regression shopping; they got Eddie Rosario, they got Jorge Soler, they got Joc Pederson from us and they won the World Series, and all those guys were really struggling in the first half. And so sometimes a guy that didn’t have a great first [half] doesn’t mean he’s not a good player. Maybe he’s due for the rest of it.”

Hoyer has previously tested his theory of progression to the mean, and it usually works well for him. Cody Bellinger is the most obvious example, but the executive has also done well piecing his bullpen together with all sorts of misfits and rejects. There’s nothing that says he can’t find similar success using the same formula at the end of this month.

That puts a target on the backs of some players desperately in need of a change of scenery, and the list is short but somewhat distinguished if you can look past the bruises and warts. Sandy Alcántara, Zac Gallen, and Luis Severino immediately come to mind, and the Cubs have reportedly kicked the tires on each. Mason Miller might be in that group, and you can also include Ryan McMahon. What about Justin Verlander? All fill positional needs for this year’s Cubs team.

Some may say the executive is simply posturing, but among his peers, Hoyer is as transparent as it gets. He’s never been overly coy or relied on slight of hand to get what he wants. Ol’ Jed just says what he’s going to do and then does it, but if you can’t rest without finding the red herring let me help you: Hoyer is signaling that he isn’t going to overpay for rentals. He’s also hinting that he expects to return next season, so the health of his farm system remains a top priority.

“I think that’s the balance,” Hoyer said. “I think that you want to focus on what’s happening right now, but also realize that we’re set up to have good teams next year and beyond, and that’s the constant balance.”

With that in mind, we shouldn’t expect that trading Matt Shaw, Owen Caissie and/or Moises Ballesteros is a foregone conclusion. The Cubs have too much invested to give those players away, even for a superb rental like Eugenio Suárez. The potential availability of Miller or MacKenzie Gore, for example, may make Hoyer reconsider, as those are the kind of young, cost-controlled pitchers the organization genuinely lacks.

Hoyer was basically a hard no if you remember when Theo Epstein traded Dylan Cease and Eloy Jiménez to the White Sox for José Quintana, and he hasn’t traded any top prospects except Cam Smith since taking the reins from Epstein. Then again, it’s okay to make that exception for a Kyle Tucker when he becomes available. Chicago’s top dog has provided a large enough sample size to indicate trading any of his top prospects is practically unlikely, and in fact, the possibility seems almost remote despite his annual “no one’s untouchable” disclaimer.

Cubs News & Notes

  • The Cubs on Friday signed former Phillies pitcher Spencer Turnbull to a minor league contract.
  • It looks like the Cubs will continue to ride with Tucker following Michael Busch at the top of the order. The first baseman is sporting a .375 OBP with 38 extra base hits, including 20 homers. Busch is also seeing 4.03 pitches per plate appearance.
  • The North Siders are now 20 games over .500 (59-39), the best record in the majors. They are also 31-9 in games where they hit at least two home runs.
  • Hoyer expects Javier Assad and Miguel Amaya to return to the team sometime in August.
  • The president of baseball operations expressed confidence in Shaw but will do what he can to improve production at third base.
  • Caissie looks like he’s ready for a promotion ($). He’s on a hot streak at Triple-A Iowa, hitting .350 with a 1.480 OPS and eight home runs in his last 10 games entering play Saturday.
  • I’m thinking out loud, but perhaps Hoyer should prioritize his bullpen over his rotation. In the 2024 MLB playoffs, starting pitchers averaged 4.25 innings per start and that’s trending downward according to FanGraphs. That’s also down significantly from the regular season average of 5.22 innings per start. 
  • I also wouldn’t mind seeing Hoyer reacquire a fan favorite from the last two seasons.

What the Heck?

You know the Cubs are good when FOX broadcasters and former Cub enemies Adam Wainwright and A.J. Pierzynski are singing their praises. The North Siders are 3-0 and have hit 10 taters in the games Pierzynski called this year (excluding the games in Tokyo), so perhaps that’s why. Chicago will play on FOX again August 9, when the team visits St. Louis to play the Cardinals.

Ball Four

Do the Cubs have an ace leading their staff? Why yes, yes they do.

Central Intelligence

  • Milwaukee (58-40): The Brewers have won five straight against the Dodgers and remain one game behind the Cubs after last night’s 8-7 win in Los Angeles. Milwaukee is sitting on a nine-game winning streak entering Sunday’s action. They’ve got to lose sometime.
  • Cincinnati (52-47): Reds outfielder TJ Friedl tied a major league record Friday night when he was hit by a pitch three times — by three different Mets hurlers.
  • St. Louis (51-48): The Cardinals signed 36-year-old journeyman pitcher Aaron Wilkerson, which may signal an imminent fire sale is in the works.
  • Pittsburgh (39-60): One MLB team asked about the availability of Paul Skenes, but that overture was rejected, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

How About That!

The Cardinals are receiving plenty of interest in starter-turned-reliever Steven Matz.

Braves right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. gunned down a runner at third with an unbelievable throw.

Kyle Schwarber is having one helluva week.

Schwarber’s contract expires after the season but the Phillies intend to keep him.

Dave Parker is going into the Hall of Fame next weekend, but his son David will deliver his acceptance speech. Parker wrote it before he passed away on June 28.

Extra Innings

The Cubs hit five homers in Saturday’s 6-0 win over the Red Sox, including this laser by Pete Crow-Armstrong. Tucker, Shaw, Busch, and Ian Happ also hit big flies. Shōta Imanaga got the win, making it a league-leading 11 shutouts for Chicago’s pitching staff this season.

They Said It

  • “Call it 55 games that you have [after the deadline]. That’s a small sample. You can have a really good player that has a pretty mediocre 55 games, and you can have a player who had a mediocre first half and then turns it on.” – Hoyer
  • “Of course you look at the playoff odds, but ultimately, we know those things change quickly. I always say this: Let’s try to focus on our team — how are we playing, how do we need to improve?” – Hoyer
  • “[Counsell] never wanted me to be anything but myself. He’s just given me a chance to see how I fit in with this team the last couple years. I had a lot of opportunity to fail. They gave me time to find my footing.” – Crow-Armstrong

Sunday Walk-Up Song

“Never was the kind to do as I was told; gonna ride like the wind before I get old.”

Kudos to Jed Hoyer and Craig Counsell for allowing PCA to just be himself. Big ups to Michael McDonald for superb backing vocals.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterJuly 20, 2025
Cubs Insider © Copyright 2025, All Rights Reserved