Padres’ Big Pitching Acquisition Could Mean They’re Looking to Move Dylan Cease, Robert Suárez

The Cubs missed on one Suárez when Eugenio was traded to the Mariners, but perhaps they could pivot to another they’ve been tied to for a while. There was a lot of talk about the Cubs being interested in both reliever Robert Suarez and starter Dylan Cease over the offseason, and the Padres’ recent acquisition of Mason Miller and JP Sears from the Athletics could stoke more conversations. Given their desire to shed payroll — Miller and Sears are both pre-arb — and the prospect haul it took to make the deal work, it makes sense for the Pads to flip the veterans.

With the Cubs boasting several top-100 prospects and still seeking impact arms for both the rotation and bullpen, you have to think Jed Hoyer is at least calling AJ Preller about the options. Suárez is in the third year of a five-year, $46 million deal that allows him to opt out after his year and Cease is earning $13.75 million in the last year of his rookie deal. The fact that both will potentially be rentals should keep the cost from being exorbitant, especially if the Padres don’t want to eat much money, but other recent deals have looked like big overpays.

Any number of hiccups could compromise a potential trade, but the biggest could be that Suárez opt-out. You have to think San Diego will want to get slugging outfielder Owen Caissie back in the fold, along with asking for Jaxon Wiggins, especially after trading two of their top three prospects to the A’s. Leo De Vries is an 18-year-old shortstop ranked No. 3 overall by MLB Pipeline and 23-year-old righty Braden Nett could debut this year or next.

It could be a matter of who blinks first with the deadline less than five hours away. Finding a way to add Cease and Suárez would immediately elevate the Cubs by giving them a pair of pitchers with big swing-and-miss stuff. Though Cease’s 4.79 ERA probably scares some folks, his 3.54 xERA and 3.65 FIP are much better. He’s among the best in the league at generating chase and whiffs, he just needs to avoid barrels. Perhaps Wrigley’s pitcher-friendly conditions would work in his favor.

Suárez has a big fastball and some of the same issues as his teammate when it comes to hard contact, but he keeps the ball in the yard to a much better degree. Outside of a pair of clunkers, he’s been lights-out in recording 30 saves so far. Having a guy like that to pair with Daniel Palencia would make the Cubs very scary in the late innings.

I’ll close with a note that just because something makes sense anecdotally — even if teams have actual discussions — doesn’t mean it’ll happen. And just because it doesn’t happen doesn’t mean there weren’t talks.