Quantifying Hope: Cubs Emerge from Deadline with 97% Postseason Odds
The trade deadline came and went like a fart in the wind as the Cubs went with lower-cost depth additions that posed little risk to the farm system. It wasn’t for lack of trying, as sources indicate the front office was heavily involved in talks for both top-end controllable starters and even former White Sox reclamation project Adrian Houser. In the end, “massive” asks that included Cade Horton and Matt Shaw kept Jed Hoyer from pushing more chips to the middle of the table.
It didn’t help that the Cubs were off Thursday, so we had nothing to occupy our minds. Add to that the Brewers’ surge into first place, and you’ve got a whole lot of folks running around proclaiming the end of the world. Or maybe just the season, but same thing. When it comes to how the computers view things, though, the Cubs are still sitting pretty.
Their 97% postseason odds just edge out Milwaukee and tell us that this is still a decent team.
Of course, the goal isn’t just to make the playoffs, and that’s the rub. As currently constructed, even considering the returns of Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, and Porter Hodge, this isn’t a pitching staff you feel great about in October. I mean, maybe you do. As for the royal you, however, there are some serious questions. Do the Cubs go with Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Cade Horton at this point? We know Colin Rea and Ben Brown aren’t getting starts in a playoff rotation.
Activating those players from the IL means having to shuffle the deck pretty significantly, which probably includes shifting newly acquired Michael Soroka to the bullpen. That might actually be the best way to get his actual numbers closer to his peripherals, but the calculus can get tricky when you’re talking about integrating new guys to the mix. While I believe the Cubs are a better team than they were on Wednesday, it’s not that simple moving forward.
The first thing they’ve got to do is take care of a depleted Orioles squad at Wrigley this weekend. Gathering a little momentum here at the start of August would be big.
