Quantifying Hope: Cubs See Playoff Odds Increase Despite SF Sweep
Despite scoring eight total runs across their three-game sweep at the hands of the Giants in San Francisco, the Cubs’ playoff odds actually improved from last week. Gaining a few tenths of a point is a good thing, though what they do upon reaching the postseason is an open question. There are clashing schools of thought on this topic as “just get in” fights with “ball go far, team go far” for supremacy.
Since the advent of the Wild Card in 1995, only seven teams with the league’s best record have gone on to win the World Series. The Cubs did it in 2016, which people tend to forget. That means 23 teams have captured Rob Manfred’s piece of metal as an underdog of sorts. Expanded playoffs provide an even greater opportunity for relatively unlikely champions to emerge from a hot stretch with a title.
Ah, but there’s a difference between sprinting into the postseason and limping across the line. Teams that out-homer their opponents always have a better chance of winning, and that increases in October when pitching gets better. If the Cubs want to have a legitimate shot at making noise past game 162, they’re going to have to rediscover their power.
They have hit only 39 homers in 38 second-half games, putting them 24th in MLB over that span, and they’re tied with the Cardinals for fewest runs (144). The Cubs’ 23 homers in August put them 26th, and they’ve hit fewer dongs over the last four games than former Cub Kyle Schwarber hit on Thursday night all by himself. For all the talk about how every team goes through cold stretches, I think we need to stop kidding ourselves about this being some kind of aberration.
While the Cubs can most certainly turn things around in September, there’s plenty of reason to be concerned about whether and how their prolonged stretch of mediocre play will translate to the postseason. As nice as that eight-game cushion is in terms of ensuring a berth, the matchups don’t look particularly fun. If the postseason started today, the Cubs would play the Padres in a three-game set to determine who gets to face the Brewers. Being the top Wild Card team provides home-field advantage, and the Cubs have a one-game cushion there.
Falling behind the Padres wouldn’t change the matchup, but being the visitors would really hurt since the Cubs are 41-25 at Wrigley against 35-33 on the road. Dropping to the third WC slot would mean facing either the Phillies or the Dodgers in the first round. Anything is possible in a short series, particularly with the way the Cubs have been pitching, so adjust your optimism accordingly.
