Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/5/25): Busch Leads Off, Tucker Still Resting Calf, Assad Starting

I don’t think Dolly Parton, Jane Fonda, or Lily Tomlin will be in attendance for this one, but Sammy Sosa will be there for the game dedicated to his time in a Cubs uniform. Derrek Lee will be honored tomorrow, and both will be officially inducted into the Cubs Hall of Fame on Sunday. The games themselves aren’t particularly consequential with the Cubs having nearly secured a playoff berth, but the Nats should offer a chance to build a little momentum.

Javier Assad gets the ball in the series opener as he makes his fifth start of the season. He has only faced one opponent with a winning record thus far, and that won’t change today, but he’s done a decent enough job of keeping the Cubs in the game. The tricky thing about Assad is that he always appears to be walking the razor’s edge, getting very few strikeouts and serving up lots of contact. To wit, he’s got just 10 punchies with 22 hits allowed over 20 MLB innings.

It looks like the wind is blowing from left to right at a pretty brisk clip that should average around 20 mph this afternoon. Of course, that’s always subject to change. Assad may not need to worry about that too much with his 52.2% groundball rate, especially when his opponents lack power for the most part. He just needs to limit the big mistakes and, ideally, let his offense work.

That’ll start with Michael Busch back in the leadoff spot and playing first base, with Ian Happ moving up to the two-hole in left and Seiya Suzuki serving as the DH. Pete Crow-Armstrong cleans up in center after getting two games off, then it’s Nico Hoerner at second and Willi Castro in right. Dansby Swanson is at short, Matt Shaw handles third, and Reese McGuire is the catcher.

Craig Counsell said they’re hopeful that Kyle Tucker will play this weekend; he could see time at DH to avoid any additional stress on that balky calf.

They’re facing 28-year-old righty Jake Irvin, who’s struggling through in his third season with the Nats. Irvin’s four-seam, curve, and change have all been disastrous for him, generating a combined -20.8 runs so far. That’s a drop of nearly 30 runs from last season, when all of those offerings worked pretty well. I don’t know if this is a Michael Soroka thing where there’s an undiagnosed injury or Irvin is just hiding something, but his velo is way down.

We’re talking almost two ticks on the four-seam and sinker, and around three on the curve and change. His little-used cutter and slider are likewise down significantly. That might have something to do with Irvin dropping his arm slot a little this season, something we’ve seen from many other pitchers across baseball, but it certainly hasn’t yielded good results in his performance.

Those three pitches I highlighted earlier account for 71% of Irvin’s repertoire, so I’m not sure the mechanical changes he’s made are in his best interest. There is still some intriguing data in there, though, like a 7.1-foot extension that’s in the 94th percentile. That would normally help Irvin’s stuff to play up, but any advantage gained has been wholly mitigated by those big velo dips. He is still able to generate decent sink, getting him near a 45% grounder rate, it’s just not nearly enough to overcome the other issues.

Always a pretty traditional split guy, Irvin continues to be victimized more frequently by left-handed hitters. They have hit 20 of the 31 homers he’s allowed, putting Irvin second-highest in MLB on both fronts. Oddly enough, he’s actually been better against lefty batters when pitching on the road despite still giving up plenty of homers. If that jet stream is carrying across to right and the Cubs can get a few up into it, we could see an entertaining game.

Or at least some of us may, as this afternoon’s contest is being broadcast exclusively on Apple TV+ yet again. I really enjoy the picture quality and the option to use the radio call, which will still be carried by 670 The Score, but I dislike usurping the home TV for a Friday afternoon game. At least it’s still a 1:20pm CT start.