Cade Horton Better Be Wild Card Game 1 Starter

When it comes to playoff baseball, there’s an old saying that “ball go far, team go far.” Because offense is at an even greater premium due to what should be superior pitching from shorter rotations, home runs have an even greater impact than usual. That is why, despite a lack of experience and having already thrown an unprecedented number of innings, Cade Horton needs to be on the bump for the Cubs’ first postseason game.

Not only has he emerged as the staff ace with an incredible second half, but the other two leading options have been pitching themselves out of that top spot. Matthew Boyd is on pace to set a new career-high for innings pitched, which might be a good thing if he’d logged as many as 79 innings in any of the last five seasons. After putting up a 2.20 ERA over his first 20 starts and holding opponents to two or fewer runs in the last 10 of those, he’s got a 5.34 ERA over his last 10 games with four or more earned runs allowed in six of them.

Shōta Imanaga hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in any of his last 10 starts, but he’s surrendered at least one homer in the last eight. He’s given up multiple home runs in six of his last 11 outings, and only one of those came against a team with a winning record. Even with the Padres languishing near the bottom of the league with a mere 140 total dingers, it wouldn’t be wise to open the door for them.

And while they don’t possess a ton of power, their .320 OBP is 10th in MLB. That could make Imanaga’s potential mistakes more costly than usual, and we saw on Friday night how quickly those big blasts can turn the tide.

“That’s a topic I need to work on: lower the amount of home runs,” Imanaga said after being shelled in Cincy. “That’s something I’ve been trying to work on, but it seems like the opposing hitters have the upper hand there. I think I need to continue to make adjustments.”

Craig Counsell has remained coy when it comes to naming his starters, understandably so, but it’s becoming very obvious who the choice would be if the Cubs absolutely had to get a win. Horton has been saddled with just one loss in his last 11 starts (8-1), and that was the game against the Brewers when he left with a blister issue after allowing one run over 2.2 innings. He has given up a total of six runs over 58.1 frames in that stretch, and he’s been the picture of confidence the entire time.

Scoring first greatly increases a team’s chance to win a ballgame, and winning the opener of a three-game series is even more important. Having Horton — whose 0.70 HR/9 allowed is better than everyone on the team other than Brad Keller (0.54) and Caleb Thielbar (0.49) — on the bump gives the Cubs the best chance to do both of those things, and you have to think his teammates understand that.

“I love buy-in from out-getters,” Counsell told reporters after Thursday’s 1-0 loss. “Look, I think when you get to the playoffs, when you get to this time of year, guys understand. And you work really hard to get to these spots, and the game changes. Not tonight, necessarily. But when you get to October, the game changes.

“And the game changes, because [in a three-game series], we’re two games from elimination. It changes your decisions. It just does.”

I suppose there’s some merit to the idea of having Horton go in Game 2 to either finish the series or play stopper, but it would be foolish to intentionally handicap yourself right out of the gate. Besides, Jameson Taillon, Javier Assad, and others will be there to pick up the slack should Horton stumble in his first taste of the postseason. But let’s not forget that the reason the Cubs shocked much of the baseball world by stretching for Horton at the No. 7 overall pick in 2022 is that he pitched his best on college baseball’s biggest stage.

He had a 4.86 ERA over just 53.2 innings in his lone campaign with the Oklahoma Sooners, but much of that was from one bad game against Texas Tech. When the games got bigger, Horton turned into a monster as he guided his team to the College World Series championship game. He struck out 49 batters over 31 innings in his last five starts, culminating in a career-best 13 strikeouts in a loss to Ole Miss.

With full understanding that MLB is a different animal, there’s no doubt in my mind that Horton will be able to dial his performance up to meet the increased demands at the highest level. This is no time to get cute, Craig, so just make sure the kid is ready to roll when the playoffs start.