Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/24/25): Busch Leads Off, Ballesteros Bats Cleanup, Boyd Starting

Boy, was last night’s game a doozy. The Cubs blew a 6-1 lead after seeing Cade Horton pulled from the game with back tightness, and the Padres’ win meant the race for the top Wild Card spot is down to 1.5 games. Cutting Horton’s outing short was a matter of the rookie having some breathing issues from a persistent cough that may have caused his back tightness. Rather than having him gut it out and potentially jeopardize his next start(s), Craig Counsell felt the Cubs had built a safe enough lead.

After all, they hadn’t lost a game this season when holding a five-run lead, nor had the Mets come back from that big a deficit. Until last night, when a combination of dull pitching and a bad defensive miscue opened the door for an improbable reversal of fortunes. Now the Cubs are relying on a guy whose second-half ERA is barely under 5.00 as he presses toward a career high for innings pitched.

Matthew Boyd enters this start at 174.1 innings, almost 63 more than in the previous three seasons combined. His ERA has gone from 2.34 to 4.74 since the break, plus his strikeout and walk rates have gotten much worse. It’s been evident to the naked eye that his stuff simply isn’t as good, and the numbers bear that out across the board. I’m not sure any amount of extra rest can mitigate the accumulated workload at this point in the season, but a strong start sure would provide a mental boost.

Getting another big offensive output would ease some fears as well, especially for a team that has been anything but consistent when it comes to scoring runs. First baseman Michael Busch recently because the Cubs’ first 30-homer hitter since 2019, and he’ll try to stay hot in the one-spot. Nico Hoerner bats and plays second, Ian Happ is in left, Moisés Ballesteros cleans up at DH, and Seiya Suzuki is in right. Carson Kelly is the catcher, Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Dansby Swanson plays short, and Matt Shaw is at third.

They’ve never seen rookie righty Jonah Tong before, at least not at the MLB level, so his extreme over-the-top delivery will present a very different look. His pitching mechanics are reminiscent of Tim Lincecum, as Tong gets much extension than expected out of his 6-foot-1 frame due to an unconventional delivery that sees his head pulling hard to the glove side to accommodate that steep angle.

That slot allows him to generate roughly 20 inches of induced vertical break on his 95 mph fastball, more than four inches higher than the average MLB pitcher. There’s a lot of cut on that pitch as well, and he’ll throw it about 60% of the time. His 86 mph changeup likewise has less depth than most, then he’s got a 77-78 mph curve that gets big 12-6 action.

This will be Tong’s fifth MLB start, the first four of which have been quite an adventure. He’s struck out 21 batters in 16 frames, but he’s also had games with four and three walks apiece. The game in which he walked four also saw him allow three homers; that was against the Reds in Cincy. Tong then gave up six runs at home to the Rangers before being pulled after retiring just two of the nine batters he faced.

This kid has some very serious stuff, but he’s barely 22 years old and is prone to making plenty of mistakes both in and out of the zone. He should be fun to watch either way, so we just have to hope it’s enjoyable because of what the Cubs are doing to him and not the other way around.

First pitch is at 7:05pm CT on ESPN and 670 The Score.