AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

The Rundown: Magic Number Stuck at 2 After Loss to Mets, Imanaga Has Worst Start of Season, Playoff Battles Come Down to MLB’s Final Weekend

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 26, 2025

“We fired our guns and the British kept a-comin’. There wasn’t nigh as many as there was a while ago.” – The Battle of New Orleans by Johnny Horton

A 162-game regular season schedule is an exercise in attrition, and getting through the campaign with a fully healthy squad is as difficult as making the playoffs. The Cubs will play the Padres in the Wild Card round starting Tuesday, but Chicago’s rotation is not without its question marks. Cade Horton is dealing with a back/ribcage issue and Matthew Boyd has pitched more innings this year than his last three seasons combined. Additionally, Shōta Imanaga is dealing with a disturbing string of starts in which he’s struggled to keep the ball in the park.

Last night, Imanaga surrendered a season-high eight runs on nine hits, including two home runs, over 5.2 innings in an 8-5 loss to the Mets at Wrigley Field. As dismaying as that line is, Imanaga wants to reassure fans that things aren’t as bad as they look.

“If I said I was confident, I think people hearing that would just think I’m just trying to be optimistic,” Imanaga said of his confidence level entering the playoffs through interpreter Edwin Stanberry. “But within the next coming days, I just want to [make] all the adjustments that I need to make to regain that confidence.”

Imanaga’s disheveled outing came shortly after news dropped that Horton’s injury might be worse than the team initially indicated. When you add Boyd’s usage to the mix, Chicago’s rotation looks like it is returning from the Battle of New Orleans just as the playoffs are about to commence. Imanaga is absorbing the bulk of the enemy’s artillery. His 31 home runs allowed are the third most among MLB starters behind Zack Littell and Jake Irvin (both with 36). Imanaga’s mark of 1.93 home runs per nine innings is the second-highest in the league.

The good news is that the Padres rank 28th in team OPS and home runs. If the Cubs survive that series, Milwaukee is near the bottom in barrel rate, and they were fourth-worst during their incredible two-month streak. Still, both teams made the playoffs and the Brewers won the NL Central, so they’ll find other ways to beat you.

Seiya Suzuki opened some eyes with a much-needed two-homer game in yesterday’s loss. Drew Pomeranz and Michael Soroka also pitched well in relief. I’m more excited about Suzuki than I am disappointed that the Cubs lost. I said in the comments section a day or two ago that it looked like he was about to break out. The Cubs will be tough to beat if Suzuki continues with a hot bat deep into the postseason.

More good news: Kyle Tucker is indeed in today’s starting lineup. Chicago’s magic number to host the Wild Card round at Wrigley Field remains at two. The Padres will face the Diamondbacks, who need to sweep or get a little help to make the playoffs. The Cubs are closing out the season with three at home against the Cardinals, who’d like nothing more than to play spoiler. The most fortuitous outcome would be winning this afternoon coupled with a Padres loss this evening. Then Craig Counsell could rest his starters ahead of Tuesday’s game at Wrigley Field.

Here are your home-field advantage clinching scenarios:

  1. The Cubs win two of three against the Cardinals and they’re in.
  2. Chicago loses two of three but the Padres lose one game.
  3. The Padres hold the tiebreaker over the Cubs, so finishing with the same record isn’t enough. Losing two of three to the Cardinals would require a sweep by the Padres for the teams to finish tied.
  4. If the Cubs are swept by the Cardinals… I don’t want to think about that, but San Diego would need two wins to clinch.

Cubs News & Notes

Ball Four

“It’s a beautiful day for a ballgame, for a ballgame today.”

Central Intelligence

Wild Pitch

“The night was clear and the moon was yellow, and the leaves came tumbling down.” – Stagger Lee by Lloyd Price

How About That!

Here’s everything at stake entering the final weekend of the regular season:

  • The Guardians need only match the Tigers to win the AL Central since Cleveland owns the tiebreaker.
  • The Blue Jays hold tiebreakers over the Yankees and Mariners. If Toronto finishes tied with New York, they win the AL East. A tie with the Mariners would give the Blue Jays home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs.
  • The Mets have to stay one game ahead of the Reds to earn the National League’s final Wild Card spot.
  • If the Diamondbacks lose one game this weekend, they’re out unless the Mets and Reds get swept. Cincinnati owns the tiebreaker over both teams.

The Dodgers clinched their fourth straight NL West title and their 12th in the last 13 years.

The Guardians are attempting to pull off the greatest comeback in MLB history.

Cal Raleigh is two home runs shy of tying Aaron Judge for the most home runs in American League history.

Eugenio Suárez needs one home run to reach 50. That would give Seattle the first pair of players with 50+ home runs since Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle in 1961. Yes, I am aware that Suárez hit the bulk of his homers with the Diamondbacks.

Francisco Lindor is the fifth player this season to join the 30/30 club, a new record. Crow-Armstrong is hoping to join that quintet this weekend.

Extra Innings

PCA should start getting fit for that platinum glove.

Apropos of Nothing

The Cardinals are 38-62 in games where they’ve allowed at least one home run. Suzuki and Crow-Armstrong are both one tater shy of 30 for the season, and Michael Busch has 31. The last time the Cubs had three or more players with 30+ home runs was in 2004. That team was led by Moisés Alou (39), Aramis Ramírez (36), Sammy Sosa (35), and Derrek Lee (32).

They Said It

  • “Look, Shōta has to execute, I mean, that’s been his story, and he is really good at executing. That means every pitch has to be executed. Fastballs down for Shōta are not going to be good results. So he’s got to execute pitches. He does give up homers. That’s kind of part of how he gives up runs. He doesn’t give up baserunners, but he does give up solo home runs. On a night like tonight, it’s both certainly.” – Counsell
  • “I never want to have a staff that’s afraid to give up a home run. The minute you do that, and I think you can see by that our DNA of who we are as a staff this year, we throw the most strikes in baseball, we’ve attacked the strike zone early, throwing the fewest pitches of any team in baseball, because we’re not afraid to attack the strike zone. Now, at times that’s going to lead to giving up some damage, but if they’re solo homers we can live with that. You can navigate a lineup and give up one, two runs and no matter how they look like, we’re going to have a lot of success. But for [Imanaga], it’s just understanding how much room he has with the fastball. He doesn’t always have to give in to the bigger parts of the zone.” – Tommy Hottovy
  • “You look at the history of the baseball playoffs and people step up. People you don’t think are going to be the heroes are the heroes. That’s the great part about baseball, that’s what’s cool about baseball. Experience or no experience, it’s going out there and getting the job done. Letting the playoffs take you to a level maybe you didn’t think you had.” – Counsell

Friday Walk-Up Song

Can we please just get ‘er done today? Is that too much to ask?

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 26, 2025
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