The Rundown: Cubs Must Win or Walk After Loss to Padres, Middle of Order Struggling, Dodgers Advance
“Try to pick yourself up, carry that weight that you can’t see. Don’t you know it’s alright?” – Tonight, Tonight, Tonight by Genesis
The Cubs are struggling offensively and will have to beat old friend Yu Darvish if they hope to advance to the NLDS to face the Brewers. To counter, Chicago will send Jameson Taillon to the hill in an effort to win their first playoff series since 2017. Game time is 4:08pm CT, and who is pitching won’t matter unless the Cubs find a way to score some runs. It would behoove Chicago’s batters to get to San Diego’s overworked bullpen as quickly as possible.
Craig Counsell made some puzzling decisions in yesterday’s 3-0 loss after a masterclass effort the day before. Opener Andrew Kittredge was tagged for a first-inning run and is likely unavailable today. Shōta Imanaga replaced him and held the Padres at bay until Manny Machado clocked him for a two-run homer in the 5th frame. Counsell might have been better pitching around Machado or relieving Imanaga earlier.
“The results suggest that we should have done something different,” Counsell said after the loss. “Really just confidence in Shōta, plain and simple there. I thought he was pitching well. I thought he was throwing the ball really well and, unfortunately, he made a mistake.”
Machado’s tater came after Fernando Tatís Jr. walked and was sacrificed to second by Luis Arráez. Counsell had three options with first base open and two outs: Bring in righty Michael Soroka to face the right-handed Machado; walk the slugger so the left-handed Imanaga would have a favorable same-side battle with Jackson Merrill; or, puzzlingly, pitch to Machado.
“We considered walking Machado,” Counsell added. “I wasn’t going to put Soroka in.”
Imanaga elevated a splitter that was meant to be down in the zone and it immediately left the ballpark. Merrill then grounded out to Michael Busch to end the inning, but with Adrián Morejón, Mason Miller, and Robert Suárez waiting to relieve Dylan Cease, the game was essentially over. The Cubs should hope Miller is unable to pitch today. He’s faced eight batters this series and struck them all out.
That’s Chicago’s offense this series in a nutshell. Ian Happ, Kyle Tucker, and Pete Crow-Armstrong are 0-for-16 with 12 strikeouts in the series. Happ has also grounded into a double play. Old-school armchair managers want to bench Happ and Tucker, but Crow-Armstrong has looked worse at the plate than his two comrades. Other than Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki, and Carson Kelly, no batter has solved the Padres’ pitching staff. The Cubs have struck out 25 times in two games, and the only walks San Diego issued were intentional.
Darvish will attempt to eliminate the Cubs in today’s twilight affair. He hasn’t faced the Cubs this season, but he’s 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA since Jed Hoyer traded him to the Padres for Zach Davies, Owen Caissie, and others in 2020. Darvish was 5-5 with a 5.38 ERA in 15 starts this season. He’s also allowed 14 home runs in 72 innings pitched in what has been the worst season of his career. Michael King will be standing by if Darvish gets into trouble.
Miller said he is ready to pitch today despite throwing a total of 40 pitches the last two days, including a 104.5 mph fastball that struck Kelly out yesterday. Like Muhammad Ali said, “You can’t hit what you can’t see.”
Padres manager Mike Shildt said “all hands on deck for Thursday” when asked about the flamethrower’s availability, though he walked it back slightly. Morejón, however, probably won’t be able to pitch this afternoon, at least effectively. Then again, there’s no tomorrow for either team.
Taillon, on the other hand, enters elimination day on quite a roll. He’s 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA since August 19 with 27 strikeouts against seven walks. Today’s game will likely come down to who scores first. San Diego is 15-9 all-time when scoring first in playoff games. The Cubs are 66-17 (.795) when scoring first this year, including Tuesday’s game. The league average is around 68 percent.
Cubs News & Notes
- Today’s game time depended on several factors, but the Cubs will play in the late afternoon slot following Wednesday wins by the Yankees and Dodgers.
- The Cubs made history yesterday, but not for a very good reason. They are the first home team in the Wild Card era with a 1-0 series lead to have lost Game 2
- Chicago must find its hitting mojo ($) in today’s winner-take-all series finale.
- Counsell was scrutinized for the decisions he made in Game 2, and rightfully so.
- That said, the Cubs can’t beat anybody unless they plate some runners.
- Crow-Armstrong says he feels no additional pressure because it’s essentially a one-game series. “My job is – and again, I’ve said this so much this year, so I hope everybody takes that with them – that I love playing center field. And right now, that’s my job.”
- Fans continue to wait for PCA to have his signature postseason moment ($) as elimination looms.
- Taillon isn’t letting recent success dictate his current mindset. He also feels no added pressure to avoid being eliminated.
- Taillon said that pitching in meaningful postseason games is exactly why he signed with the Cubs.
- Darvish says he is a “big game player” despite his marginal season.
- Chicago’s postseason run has provided a financial boost to Wrigleyville businesses.
- The pennant chase has turned October baseball into a derivatives commodity.
- Happ brought a young fan to Tuesday’s game and wrote the student’s absent note.
Ball Four
Nothing complements October baseball better than lamb stew and wax beans.
45 cents for Lamb Stew with VGTS….sold!!
Shibe Park concession stands pic.twitter.com/wE29utYNC1
— OldTimeHardball (@OleTimeHardball) October 1, 2025
Wednesday Wild Card Results
The Tigers stranded a team record 15 runners in their Game 2 loss to the Guardians. Javier Báez accounted for Detroit’s lone hit with runners in scoring position. Cleveland has won its last three elimination games against the Tigers, and they’ll send Slade Cecconi to the mound for the clincher. Detroit is countering with Jack Flaherty.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. was benched on Tuesday but turned in a season-saving performance on Wednesday to keep the Yankees from being swept at home by the Red Sox. Chisholm made a crucial run-saving play with his glove in the seventh inning and hustled all the way from first base on Austin Wells‘ single to score the tiebreaking run an inning later.
The Dodgers made quick work of the Reds as they cruised to an 8-4 victory in Game 2 thanks to big nights from Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Next up for the defending World Series champions is a date with the Phillies in the NLDS.
Central Intelligence
- Milwaukee: The Brewers still do not know if Brandon Woodruff will be available to pitch in the NLDS.
- Chicago: While San Diego’s bullpen may be somewhat taxed, Counsell was able to rest relievers Daniel Palencia, Drew Pomeranz, and Brad Keller on Thursday.
- Cincinnati: Elly De La Cruz enjoyed his first trip to the playoffs but said the Reds have much work to do this winter to catch the Cubs and Brewers.
- St. Louis: Former Cardinals great Albert Pujols has become the leading candidate to manage the Angels, according to at least two reports.
- Pittsburgh: Team president Travis Williams is trying to assure fans that the Pirates have the necessary resources to challenge for a playoff spot next season.
How About That!
Guardians outfielder Chase DeLauter became the sixth player to make his MLB debut in a playoff game. The rookie proceeded to drop the first ball hit to him.
Dodgers reliever Alex Vesia had a one-pitch strikeout Tuesday night. No, really.
Kyle Schwarber uses the sacred space of the team’s batting cage as a laboratory for greatness. Perhaps he’ll fly Tucker in before today’s game.
The White Sox started their offseason by announcing changes to their coaching staff.
Rockies GM Bill Schmidt will not be back with the team next year, though there are conflicting reports as to whether he resigned or was fired.
The Tampa Bay Rays have been sold for $1.7 billion to an ownership group led by Patrick Zalupski.
Apropos of Nothing
Entering yesterday’s game, Machado was 1-for-9 with six strikeouts when facing Imanaga. The lone hit was a home run.
Son of Apropos
Let me hook you up with an inspirational Game 3 playlist.
- I Won’t Back Down by Tom Petty, who died on this day in 2017.
- Tubthumping by Chumbawamba
- Learn to Fly by Foo Fighters
- Higher Ground by Red Hot Chili Peppers
- Immortality by Pearl Jam
- Mother by Danzig
- More Human Than Human by White Zombie
- Jesus Built My Hot Rod by Ministry
- Sledgehammer by Peter Gabriel
- The Long Road by Mark Knopfler
Rounding Third
Clichéd, but appropriate.
“Great moments are born from great opportunity, and that’s what you have here tonight, boys. That’s what you’ve earned here, tonight. One game.” – Herb Brooks
Sliding Into Home
The Cubs need to win today because we all want a shot at the Brewers. Additionally, nobody wants an early-October autopsy followed by an early dalliance into the hot stove season and endless debate about the merits of signing or not signing Tucker. And please don’t tell me the Cubs lack the pitching for an extended postseason run. You have to score runs to win games, period.
The loss of readers between potential elimination and the start of free agency isn’t something I look forward to, either.
They Said It
- “The first two matchups in this series have been pitchers that have done a good job exploiting Pete’s holes, which is what pitchers — that’s their job, right? And they’ve executed pitches really well to do that. I think they’ve made a lot of good pitches on Pete. I think clearly today they made a lot of good pitches on everybody.” – Counsell
- “I feel no pressure about making my individual mark, only because my goal is just to play as long into October and then hopefully early November as I can.” – Crow-Armstrong
- “Everyone’s going to show up tomorrow, do their work, do their routines, and be ready to go. And we say it a lot throughout the season so that we’re ready for these big games and these big moments. You can always fall back on your routines and your processes. This is a very experienced group, a lot of playoff experience in here. I don’t think we need to go out there with the idea of our backs being against the wall. I think we go out and play our game, execute our plan and be ready.” – Taillon
Thursday Walk-Up Song
Win or call it a season, put up or shut up. Let’s do it for Tom (Petty that is, not Ricketts).
