The Rundown: Speed and Power Keys to Beating Brewers, Suzuki Staying in Right, Yankees Facing Elimination

“It’s criminal…there ought to be a law.” – If You Want Blood You Got It by AC/DC

At the end of the 2018 season, the Cubs and Brewers finished with identical 95-67 records. The two teams met at Wrigley Field for Game 163, and Milwaukee won the game 3-1 to capture the NL Central crown. The next day, the Rockies beat the Cubs 2-1 in their single-elimination Wild Card tilt, making it the most disappointing 24 hours in team history. The Brew Crew advanced to the NLCS, where they lost a thrilling series to the Dodgers in seven games. Fans up here would like nothing more than a shot at redemption in the next round of this year’s playoffs.

Game 163 doesn’t mean a lot to Cubs fans, but it’s everything to the Brewers and their fans because it legitimized Milwaukee baseball. Yeah, the Cubs were 237-239 against their division rival before that game, and they’ve gone 51-62 since. That’s a difference of about a half-game per season, so it is admittedly negligible. That said, when was the last time the Cubs beat the Brewers in a game that mattered? The Cubs have not won the division since that season except for the Covid-shortened 2020 campaign played in empty ballparks. Milwaukee has won three NL Central titles since.

The difference is not so insignificant here in Milwaukee, where fans and their baseball team truly believe they own the Cubs. Saturday’s 9-3 thrashing just added insult to injury. Chicago’s North Side Baseballers need to win the games that count, and they’ve got to win three of them this week before Milwaukee wins two. They certainly can’t go into tonight’s game with heads held low, but Craig Counsell doesn’t seem like an inspiring sort of manager. He’s analytical and emotionless to a fault, so it’s going to be the team leaders that need to step up.

The Brewers can only be beaten by playing mistake-free baseball and by consistently putting runners on base. Milwaukee has an edge in on-base percentage, the teams are nearly even in walk and strikeout rate, and both teams are exceptional at making contact while not chasing out of the zone. The Cubs slug better, but solo home runs aren’t going to win any games this week, especially if Counsell uses his starters on short rest like he did with Matthew Boyd on Saturday.

If the Cubs are going to win this series, they need to leverage their power advantage. The North Siders got solo home runs on Saturday from Michael Busch, Ian Happ, and Nico Hoerner. Dansby Swanson had a double, and Chicago got meaningless singles by Carson Kelly and Pete Crow-Armstrong. The Cubs did not attempt to steal a base and generally lose when failing to accomplish that mission. Chicago is 54-27 (.667) this year when stealing at least one base, and 38-43 (.469) in games when they’ve failed to do so. They’re 33-10 (.767) when stealing two or more bases. For some reason, Counsell doesn’t run much against William Contreras, but the Milwaukee catcher is by no means elite at preventing stolen bases.

Hoerner’s tater did not atone for his horrible 1st-inning error, which made four of the six runs Boyd allowed in two-thirds of an inning unearned. Still, the Brewers hit doubles on three straight 1st-inning pitches to take a 2-1 lead, and Boyd looked shell-shocked and battle-worn after Brice Turang drove in Jackson Chourio to tie the game at one. The Brewers sent 20 men to the plate in the first two innings, finished the game 7-for-17 with runners in scoring position, and manhandled the Cubs without the benefit of hitting a home run.

Nevertheless, power is the great separator in postseason baseball. The Cubs have hit six home runs in four games against the Padres and Brewers, but none with men on base. That has to change if Counsell and his crew hope to eliminate Milwaukee. Aggressive, power-driven, mistake-free baseball usually beats the Brewers. There is precedent, in case you are wondering. Busch hit a grand slam when the Cubs beat the Brewers 10-0 on May 2. They hit three home runs off of Quinn Priester in a 6-2 win the following day. Priester could pitch tonight, and it would behoove Chicago to play an attacking style of baseball, or they’ll be facing elimination on Wednesday afternoon at Wrigley Field.

Cubs/Brewers News & Notes

• Shōta Imanaga is slated to start the first playoff game in his MLB career in this evening’s tilt at AmFam Field. The Brewers were much more aggressive than usual while ambushing Boyd — who tends to throw a lot of first-pitch strikes — and could use a similar approach with Imanaga on the mound.
• Aaron Ashby will be Milwaukee’s opener tonight, and he could be followed by Priester, though manager Pat Murphy may use nothing but relievers in an attempt to go up 2-0 in the series.
• Going forward, the Cubs could use a bounce-back performance by Kyle Tucker. It looked like he was getting his timing back in the Wild Card round, but he didn’t barrel anything in Game 1 of this series.
• Counsell is going to keep Seiya Suzuki in right field, a move that has implications beyond the 2025 playoffs. Tucker is unlikely to return in ’26, which means Suzuki or Owen Caissie could be playing right field next season, with the other serving as designated hitter. Counsell said Suzuki has been told ($) he is the team’s right fielder going forward.
• Freddy Peralta tied a team postseason record held by Brandon Woodruff with nine strikeouts on Saturday. He’ll go in Game 5 if the series goes that long.
• Hoerner is shouldering the blame for the Game 1 loss. His error potentially cost the Cubs an inning-ending double play with the team down 2-1 in the 1st inning.
• Resilience has been the better part of Chicago’s identity this season. The best way to stop analysts from talking about the Game 1 loss is to win the next game.
• The best thing to happen to the Cubs might be the day off between Games 1 and 2.
• Relievers Brad Keller, Andrew Kittredge, and Daniel Palencia have been able to rest since Thursday. If the Cubs can get back in the win column tonight, it would suddenly turn the NLDS into a best-of-three competition — and the Cubs would hold homefield advantage. Those three could be Chicago’s X-factors for the rest of the series.
• A record-setting relief appearance by Aaron Civale in Game 1 was a boost to the Cubs’ overused bullpen.
• The bullpen has been a source of strength for this year’s team, thanks to continual input from an unexpected source no longer with the team: Ryan Pressly
• Justin Steele is traveling with the team during the playoffs and is scheduled to begin playing catch ($) later this month. He is on schedule to return from season-ending elbow surgery by Opening Day 2026.
• Results of Chourio’s hamstring MRI were inconclusive. Murphy said the outfielder’s availability this evening will be a game-time decision.
• Isaac Collins will probably play left field if Chourio is out, with Blake Perkins assuming leadoff duties. Turang and Christian Yelich are also options to hit at the top of the order.
• Priester said he would have been a pilot if he hadn’t pursued a career in baseball.
• Cubs and Brewers fans were unhappy with commentary by Ron Darling during Saturday’s broadcast on TBS.

Ball Four

A self-own or winning the game? Which would you rather?

This is a brutal self own for a game that they did play at home. https://t.co/SWL4hNk95b

— Michael Cerami (@Michael_Cerami) October 5, 2025

Central Intelligence

• Milwaukee: Murphy calls pregame handshakes “happy horse manure” and completely abstains during lineup introductions.
• Chicago: Let’s stop calling AmFam Field “Wrigley North.” Cubs fans should only be concerned with, you know, winning a playoff game in Milwaukee. If the best thing you can say about your team is that its fans travel well, you’re swimming in the wrong lane, and if the Cubs don’t win at least one game at, um, Wrigley North, the Brewers will be the team that advances.
• Cincinnati: Outfielder Austin Hays has a $12 million mutual option, but his return is a puzzling predicament for both sides. The optimal move for Hays and his 105 OPS+ is to agree to the option, but the Reds will then have to determine if they can find a better and healthier outfielder at the same price if they decline.
• St. Louis: The Cardinals saw the largest decline in average home attendance of any of MLB’s 30 teams. That includes the Rockies and White Sox, who each lost 100+ games.
• Pittsburgh: Ace Paul Skenes doesn’t sugarcoat anything when talking about ownership’s lack of commitment to making the Pirates a playoff contender.

Wild Card Results

The Yankees are facing elimination after the Blue Jays thumped them 13-7 on Sunday. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit the team’s first postseason grand slam in the win. Toronto has outscored New York 23-8 in the first two games.

Toronto starter Trey Yesavage held the Yankees hitless with 11 strikeouts through five innings in yesterday’s win.

The Mariners nipped the Tigers 3-2 to tie their series at a game apiece. Detroit stole home-field advantage by winning Game 1 in Seattle.

Dodgers outfielder Teoscar Hernández has been tearing the cover off the ball this postseason. He has three homers and nine RBI in three games. The Dodgers are up 1-0 heading into tonight’s game with the Phillies in Philadelphia.

How Bout That!

Skip Schumaker was announced as the Rangers’ new manager, replacing Bruce Bochy. Seven managerial positions are still open.

The Padres hollowed out their farm system with three years of aggressive trading, and they have to rebuild their rotation this winter.

San Diego is also considered the favorite to sign first baseman Pete Alonso away from the Mets.

The Giants are also targeting rotation depth this offseason.

San Francisco and both New York teams are the early favorites to sign Dylan Cease once he hits free agency.

Here’s your list of impact players expected to reach free agency once the World Series ends. Who do you like for the Cubs? Jed Hoyer will be looking for reclamation pitchers at bargain prices, so Andrew Heaney, Chris Paddack, and Erick Fedde immediately come to mind. Michael Soroka is probably an option as well.

Shohei Ohtani continues to make history each time he takes the mound.

The Arizona Fall League kicked off its 2025 season on Sunday.

Extra Innings

The Bears beat the Patriots 46-10 in Super Bowl XX after staking New England to a 3-0 lead. That’s what Busch’s leadoff homerun felt like by the time the 3rd inning started.

START US UP, MICHAEL. pic.twitter.com/gSBFRJBTRE

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) October 4, 2025

Apropos of Nothing

Never forget that the Cubs outscored the Brewers 2-0 after the second inning of Saturday’s game. It’s all about momentum.

They Said It

• “We just gotta put more pressure on offensively. The home runs are great. We had six or seven base runners (on Saturday). That’s not a lot. But yeah, that’d be great. Getting guys on base and slug? Love it.” – Counsell
• “They did the thing they’re good at [Saturday]. That won a game for them. There’s probably been zero games in the history of the postseason where a team outhomered the other team three to zero and lost. Until [Saturday].” – Counsell
• “Obviously, that [error] had an impact. Not just win and loss implications, but just the entire use of the pitching staff and everything like that. Had a huge effect on that game and momentum.” – Hoerner
• “Tucker’s DH-ing. It could change. Right now, I don’t see any reason for it to change …. [Seiya] is playing well, I think he feels good out there. I think he knows this is his job now.” – Counsell
• “I’ve [snubbed my players] for 10 years now whenever we’ve had introductions. I just think it’s — I call it ‘happy horse manure.’ It sounds better when I use the other word, but I’m not going to use it because I don’t use that kind of language in a public setting.” – Murphy

Monday Walk-Up Song

Steal some damn bases for the love of Mike!