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The Rundown: Naylor Becomes First FA Domino to Fall, Keller Drawing Interest as SP, 12 First-Timers on HOF Ballot

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanNovember 17, 2025

Seth Gecko, the anti-hero protagonist of From Dusk Till Dawn, quipped that “Those acts of God really stick it in and break it off,” and he sure was right about that. Not only was my wife dealing with a potentially life-threatening health scare last week, but I ended up developing a sinus infection before then throwing my back out while cleaning up leaves. My situation isn’t anywhere near as significant as hers; it’s just that we were both laid up and somewhat out of it all weekend.

The good news is that we’re both on the mend and also that the Cubs have done very little of note over the last few days that I might have otherwise missed. It was also nice to watch the Bears from the comfort of my own home rather than from a hospital room, so that’s a big plus. We should start getting a little more MLB action here soon, though Thanksgiving typically slows things down.

Traditionally a hotbed of activity, the Winter Meetings seem to generate more rumors than signings these days. Much of that stems from electronic communication eliminating the need for in-person meetings, not to mention the way it enables execs and agents alike to better conceal their machinations. That said, the second week of December should see the heat turned up on transactions.

Or maybe some bigger moves will start earlier, as we saw over the weekend.

Naylor Nailed Down

Josh Naylor became the first big free-agent domino to fall when he re-signed with the Mariners on a five-year deal expected to fall somewhere in the $90-100 million range. That’s right in line with what MLB Trade Rumors predicted for their No. 12 FA, and three of their four writers correctly named the team. The first baseman was traded from Cleveland to Arizona last December, then went to Seattle about a week before the deadline.

You may recall that Naylor was reportedly a Cubs trade target during the 2023 Winter Meetings, with former Guardians ace Shane Bieber also drawing Jed Hoyer’s attention. There were additional rumors about closer Emmanuel Clase, who has since been indicted for his role in a gambling scheme that we surely haven’t seen the end of.

This is a perfect example of something Hoyer has spoken about many times when it comes to trade talks, which is that a very high percentage of discussions never go anywhere. This may be hard to believe, but it’s not as easy as Brad Pitt picking up a phone and consummating multiple deals in just a few minutes. And sometimes, the best deals are the ones you don’t make.

The flip side is that the Cubs have long been so beholden to their quest for value that they’re often unwilling to pull the trigger on a deal that looks risky on paper. They broke from that strategy in a very big way with Kyle Tucker, showing a willingness to take a big swing even for a player who would be hard to keep around. Of course, the idea at the time was that Tucker might fall in love with the idea of staying in Chicago for a while.

That was the case with Naylor, who quickly developed a mutual admiration with the Mariners and Seattle during the postseason push. There’s a big difference between the deal he got and what Tucker is expecting, but I think you understand the point. The M’s made Naylor a priority, locking him up before players made decisions on qualifying offers. Once those get settled by Tuesday afternoon, the market will clarify further.

Keller’s Market

The Cubs look like the clubhouse leaders to sign Brad Keller, in large part because he bounced back with them to have the best season of his career, but his market could expand significantly if teams view him as a starter. That was his role up until 2024, and this past season was the first in which he made more than 14 relief appearances. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that teams have shown interest in Keller as a starter, which would likely mean much larger contract offers than if he’s strictly a reliever.

This is reminiscent of Clay Holmes getting three years and $38 million from the Mets after establishing himself as a premier bullpen arm with the Yankees over the three previous seasons. Of course, Holmes’ production fell off precipitously, as did his fastball velocity, across 165.2 innings over 33 appearances (31 starts). While he was still effective, his 18.2% strikeout rate was nearly seven points lower than in any of the last four seasons and his sinker sat under 94 mph after being at 96-97 mph previously.

Keller saw a 10-point jump in his K-rate as his fastball jumped from 93-94 to 97+, so basically the exact opposite of Holmes. I see this as something akin to assuming an excellent coordinator will make a good head coach. Sometimes people are just suited for certain roles and are able to perform better under a tighter set of parameters.

All indications are that the Cubs may be willing to extend a multiyear offer or two to relievers, with Keller being at the top of their list. Keller will probably likewise prioritize a return to the North Side, but I don’t believe this is a situation in which Hoyer will outbid the rest of the league. Unless the Cubs jump the market, which seems unlikely with the draw of starter money, they may end up having to move on.

First-Time HOF Candidates

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America released its ballot for the 2026 Hall of Fame election on Monday, and the list included 12 first-timers. Most of these are Hall of Very Good players who will fall off after getting less than 5% of the vote, and I’m not even sure any of them will get closer to election on this cycle.

Former Cubs great Cole Hamels and longtime Cubs nemesis Ryan Braun stand out as the cream of the crop here, though the latter’s purported PED usage should limit his support.

Here’s the rest of the rookie class:

Trailer Time

This isn’t quite new, but I think it’s cool that Quentin Tarrantino is releasing both halves of his Kill Bill epic — along with some never-before-seen footage — as one film.

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanNovember 17, 2025
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