The Rundown: Implications of QO Decisions, Cubs Add Prospects to 40-Man, Morel Dilemma

Tuesday brought us the most activity we’ve seen so far this offseason, even if most of it was merely procedural in nature. Beyond the immediate implications of the qualifying offer decisions and 40-man additions to protect prospects from the Rule 5 Draft, however, are ripples across the market as players officially became (un)available and had their values altered. While the top QO players were never in question, several others were in limbo to some extent.

The most important of those for our specific purposes was Shōta Imanaga, who many believed would decline the QO and head elsewhere. Jon Heyman even reported that Imanaga was expected to decline, though that always felt to me like more of a ploy by his reps to spur offers from other teams. I always felt his acceptance of the one-year, $22.025 million offer was a foregone conclusion given his performance and how teams would view the associated penalties with signing a QO player.

Quick note on that since I see confusion about it: A team that loses a QO does not receive compensation directly from the team that signs them. The penalties and compensation are fixed based on a team’s revenue-sharing and CBT status. As a team that does not receive rev-share money and didn’t go over the CBT threshold, the Cubs will receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B. That should be around pick 75, give or take a few.

In addition to Imanaga, three other players accepted their respective QOs: Trent Grisham of the Yankees, Gleyber Torres of the Tigers, and Brandon Woodruff of the Brewers. Bo Bichette, Dylan Cease, Edwin Diaz, Zac Gallen, Michael King, Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Suarez, Kyle Tucker, and Framber Valdez all declined and are free agents. There are a boatload of Cubs connections there, so let’s get into the implications.

What do QO decisions mean for Cubs

The most obvious impact is that Imanaga is back for at least a year, giving the Cubs what should be a full five-man rotation with a healthy Justin Steele. Based on the recovery timeline from his internal brace UCL revision, Steele could actually be ready for Opening Day. How effective he’ll be out of the gate is an open question, and there are plenty of doubts about the upside of the rest of the starters not named Cade Horton, so Jed Hoyer still needs to add an impact arm.

Among the options are four of the pitchers named above, only one of whom really stands out as the kind of power arm the Cubs have lacked for far too long. Bringing Cease back to the organization would not be without its risks, which include losing their second-highest draft pick and $500,000 in international pool money, but he’s easily the most dynamic option. The Cubs have been loath to sign QO players in the past, but getting a pick back for Tucker and being able to trade for IFA money could soften that stance.

The bigger issue is payroll, as Cease is projected to earn $27 million or so annually for 6-7 years. Factor in the pursuit of a big bat like Alex Bregman or even Schwarber and the Cubs would be into CBT penalty range before building a bench or bullpen. Based on FanGraphs’ Roster Resource tool, Imanaga accepting the QO put the Cubs at an estimated $191.5 million payroll. That leaves them with approximately $52.5 million in buffer. Unless they’re planning to go well over, the idea of two big additions doesn’t hold water.

Then again, knowing that they’ve got around $119 million falling off the books after this season could convince Tom Ricketts to open up the checkbook. The strong possibility of a shutdown in 2027 doesn’t seem to have deterred teams to this point, and having all that flexibility could make up for a lot of the uncertainty over how the next collective bargaining agreement will shake out. Knowing they’ll easily be able to avoid additional penalties as repeat offenders would make overages in 2026 much easier to absorb.

I know a lot of you don’t want to believe that’s even possible, but I see extending the QO to Imanaga as a sign that the Cubs were willing to spend. They knew there was a strong likelihood that he’d accept, which would hurt their financial flexibility while limiting the rotation’s ceiling. With that in mind, I can’t help but think that Hoyer knew he’d have more resources to bolster the team for 2026 while setting the Cubs up to remain competitive beyond that.

Unless they’re trying to reset the whole thing once the new CBA gets sorted out, going bigger than usual this winter makes a ton of sense. Maybe too much sense, as their past behavior leaves plenty of room for skepticism.

40-Man Additions

With 11 open spots on the 40-man roster, the Cubs could be a little more liberal when it came to protecting Rule 5-eligible prospects. As such, they selected the contracts of lefty Riley Martin, infielder Pedro Ramirez, and infielder James Triantos ahead of Tuesday’s deadline. Righty Brandon Birdsell would have been a candidate, but he underwent elbow surgery in August and is not in danger of being plucked away in December.

I’d argue that none of the other three are either, but the organization has the luxury of not having to risk it. Martin, 27, has spent the last three seasons with Iowa and went 6-2 with a 2.69 ERA in 46 relief appearances and one start in 2025. Ramirez, 21, spent the entire year with Double-A Knoxville and hit a team-high .280 with eight home runs and 73 RBI. Triantos, 22, played 102 games last season with the I-Cubs and hit .258 with seven home runs and 43 RBI.

The Cubs now have eight spots open for winter additions without having to drop anyone else from the roster, though they will probably free up room by non-tendering Reese McGuire.

Chris Morel DFA’d

Christopher Morel really fell off following his trade from the Cubs, leading the Rays to designate him for assignment on Tuesday. He was in line for an estimated salary of $2.6 million through arbitration, which was too rich for Tampa’s blood knowing they have 16 other arb-eligible players on the roster. That sets up a potential reunion in Chicago, where the Cubs need to rebuild their bench on the cheap.

People have mixed opinions on Morel, but I see very little risk with high upside for a guy who would be replacing Justin Turner, Willi Castro, or Jon Berti.

Trailer Time

After debating between a few different movie options, one of which was the new Godzilla x Kong movie that is currently in production, I settled on a TV series. Monarch: Legacy of Monsters on Apple TV is a nice companion to the blockbuster kaiju flicks, and I really enjoyed the first season. The next installment debuts on February 27 and will feature the greatest of the great apes. Should be fun.