Sounds Like Roki Sasaki’s Reps Encouraging All Teams to Make Pitch
It’s been roughly 48 hours since I wrote something about Roki Sasaki, which means I may have to pump out at least two pieces about him today. Seriously though, it’ll be nice when there’s more Cubs stuff to cover. And hey, maybe they’ll be legit suitors for the Japanese phenom, whose jump to MLB is taking place two years too early for him to cash in on a monster deal right out of the gate.
He may not even be concerned with the signing bonus, which can only be around $12 million at the very most if a team trades for the maximum allowable increase in its international amateur pool and opts to give it all to one player. That’s unlikely on both fronts, not to mention Sasaki is unlikely to be swayed by a million bucks here or there when he’s already passing on hundreds of millions.
This is a matter of him betting on his talent and youth to let him recoup his suppressed earnings down the road. And from the sounds of it, Sasaki is so confident in his prodigious ability that he might even sign during the 2024 international period even though teams have spent through most of their respective pools.
“As I was texting around the industry over the weekend,” FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen explained on the Effectively Wild podcast, “the sense is that Sasaki’s people have said to teams, ‘Hey, this is not a foregone thing, make your pitch — even you, the Minnesota Twins, who have $20,000 left in your bonus pool.’ Actually, it’s $17,500 for the Twins. Because all this stuff is subjective, right?
“And this is the other thing: Because we’re in the 2024 international amateur calendar year and teams have spent and agreed to deals, everyone knows how much everyone else has left, objectively, for the 2024 calendar year. Were Sasaki to be posted later, such that he would sign after January 15 during the 2025 international signing period, we don’t really know how much money everyone has.”
While some of the other reports out there saying Sasaki to the Dodgers isn’t set in stone almost come across as the two sides spinning things to avoid a tampering beef, this seems legit. Well, unless the folks Longenhagen was texting were all part of the Dodgers organization. Assuming he cast a fairly wide net, this may truly be a situation in which the young pitcher is looking for the best overall fit.
One other note here that may be of interest to those who’ve followed the posting system for a while is that having other Japanese players has gone from a detriment to a recruiting tool. Not all that long ago, it was believed that a Japanese player coming to MLB would not want to take any spotlight away from an elder statesman. Now, however, that culture has shifted a bit.
We don’t know how Sasaki views the possibility of pitching in the towering shadows of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but that could be at the crux of his decision. Depending on how much light he wants to command, pitching in LA could be either a blessing or a curse. If he’s seeking a team he can call his own, particularly one with a strong track record of developing young arms, the Rays could be a real contender.
The Cubs have done a very good job of luring Japanese stars and should also be well-positioned, though I question whether they can offer enough in either direction. Their stars aren’t as bright and their pitching development isn’t exactly setting the industry standard, but they aren’t truly terrible in any category and they have a very strong combination of professional and cultural perks.
Sorry if you’re already sick of this topic, but don’t expect it to go away anytime soon.