ZiPS Projections Love Cubs’ Position Players

We’re still two months away from the start of spring training and the Cubs have a lot of work remaining, but it’s never too early to look at what the computer models say about their potential production. Dan Szymborski recently released his ZiPS projections for the squad Jed Hoyer is in the process of assembling and, folks, I like what I’m seeing here. Though there aren’t any 6-WAR players in the mix, the Cubs have six positions at 3.5 or greater.

As a quick primer before we get into this a little further, ZiPS factors growth and decline trends against players’ past performance to determine what they may do in the future. It uses stats from the past four years with greater emphasis on more recent seasons and even incorporates injury data into its results. While this shouldn’t be viewed as a crystal-clear vision of the future, it’s more accurate than a Magic 8 Ball.

Take a look at the projections and we’ll meet up on the other side to discuss.

The first thing that jumps out at me is the incredibly balanced position-player group projecting out to 32.8 WAR. That’s 10.2 more than they managed in 2024 and it’s still 6.7 wins above the total if you remove all the negative-WAR performers. A lot of that comes from a much more analytical process than we used to calculate how these guys could find eight more wins than they put up this past season due to inconsistent play as a result of injuries or whatever.

Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Michael Busch all get modest bumps of .4-.6, but the real improvement on the infield comes from Matt Shaw. The Cubs may still add a third baseman to provide both a challenge and a safety net for the rookie, but it won’t take much to beat what the Cubs got from the hot corner in ’24. With -0.9 fWAR between Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni, Nick Madrigal, David Bote, and Isaac Paredes, even a struggling Shaw may be a big improvement.

The outfield and DH spots are as solid as you’ll find out there anywhere, and I’d argue that the 4.5 for Kyle Tucker and Seiya Suzuki in right may be overly conservative. I wonder whether and how much of that is due to Tucker missing half the season with a leg injury. Pete Crow-Armstrong could really push his numbers if his second-half offense carries over, and he could even lead the team in wins above replacement based on the strength of his glove.

Hoyer shored up the catcher position with Carson Kelly, who will be a capable backup at the very least. Miguel Amaya figured things out after a slow start at the plate and should likewise be competent in his role. Again, these don’t feel like aggressive projections. One might even be inclined to say there’s a good chance we see one or two players exceed them.

The pitching staff inspires a little less excitement, particularly the rotation with too little upside in exchange for the higher risk with Matthew Boyd‘s addition. Laying the starting five out like this is a strong argument for adding another arm to raise the ceiling a bit. Picking up another reliever with late-inning experience would be really nice as well.

Apologies for the shoddy nature and abrupt ending of this post, but I cranked out over 4,000 words yesterday and my brain is mushier than usual as a result.