Shoko Ito/Pool Photo via AP

The Rundown: Cubs Head to Japan, Competition for 5th Starter Close, De La Cruz Stuns Francona

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterMarch 12, 2025

Justin Steele got whacked around against the Brewers in Arizona on Tuesday, but he’ll start the season as the ace of the Cubs’ rotation. Following Steele, the trio of Shōta Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Matthew Boyd are locks to make the rotation. Manager Craig Counsell hasn’t named a fifth starter, and that determination will likely come after the team’s trip to Tokyo. Colin Rea and Ben Brown are the favorites, but don’t count out Brad Keller. Javier Assad is currently dealing with an oblique injury and it looks like Jordan Wicks will work as a swingman.

Brown is being stretched out as a starter because he’s previously flashed dominance. He appeared in 15 games last season, eight as a starter, before getting hurt. I’ve been on the fence regarding Brown because of his limited arsenal that features a 95 mph four-seam fastball and a knee-buckling breaking ball that generated a 24.68% whiff rate in 2024. He’s been working on a changeup for a while and he’ll need better separation between his slider and curve. Brown is too hittable when batters sit on his fastball because it often lacks movement. His fastball will play up with a halfway decent change, making any variation on his breaking stuff is legitimately unfair.

Rea has a stable floor and more experience than Brown as a back-end starter. He’s the conservative option who will give Counsell quality outings and keep the Cubs in games, as evidenced by his 16 starts of 5+ innings last season in which he surrendered three runs or less. He’s not as cerebral as Kyle Hendricks, but the two are similarly unsexy on the mound. Rea’s arsenal is more polished than Brown’s and his palette of 5-6 pitches provides pretty standard movement with underwhelming velocity, but he gets outs. One of Rea’s best qualities is that he won’t overtax Chicago’s bullpen. That’s key, especially in April and early May.

Keller has an opt-out as a non-roster invitee, but his increase in velocity and mechanical improvements should earn him a spot on the roster. His role is undefined, however, so he may be exposed to free agency once Assad is healthy. At 30 years of age, Keller’s fastball is up two ticks from the 94-96 mph it sat at last season. He also has a solid 87-88 mph slider that makes his fastball a little more deadly. My gut feeling is that he won’t make the team, something the Cubs may regret. The team doesn’t have room for all of Boyd, Rea, and Keller unless Hoyer trades one of Brown, Wicks, or Assad. Counsell probably prefers Wicks’ upside as a swingman anyway, and Brown could better transition to the bullpen once Assad is healthy. If Keller makes the 40-man, it will probably be at the expense of Keegan Thompson.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

If you listen closely, you can hear the theme from Jaws while watching Sasaki pitch.

Central Intelligence

Spring Training News & Notes

Elly De La Cruz stole two bases at once Tuesday, going from second to home on a double steal with Austin Hays, leaving manager Terry Francona stunned.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred is pressuring Rays owner Stu Sternberg to sell the team.

Stefan Caray will handle play-by-play with dad Chip during the Cardinals-Marlins Spring Breakout game.

The Astros are giving third base prospect Cam Smith reps in right field in an effort to get him onto the Opening Day roster.

Who is the best hitting duo of 2025? You could make a string case for Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto of the Mets.

The Yankees need pitching but Brian Cashman says very little is available.

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Extra Innings

I expect the Cubs to dominate the Brewers this season.

They Said It

  • “I thought Keegan [Thompson] threw well here, but ultimately, we felt like some guys were better. When you have guys who are out of options, you’re going to have to make some hard decisions. I think the goal always is to keep as much depth and talent as possible, but there are limits. Sometimes you reach those limits.” – Hoyer
  • “In the traditional sense, we have a huge amount of very young, high upside lottery tickets that we could consider exciting prospects. Part of any great player development system is viewing all the players as the potential to be something that people don’t think they can be, and that’s how we’re going to operate. We’re going to treat these players and their timelines in whatever way is most beneficial to the Cubs and to their development. We don’t have that added pressure right now to push guys through the system to cover holes, because we don’t have the holes up top.” – Kanzler

Wednesday Walk-Up Song

The Cubs can send a loud statement to the rest of baseball by sweeping the Dodgers in Tokyo. Fingers crossed.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterMarch 12, 2025
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