The Rundown Lite: Happ’s Hard-Luck Liner, Horton’s Future, Cubs 4th in MLB Power Rankings

If you’re reading this, you managed to survive yet another wild weekend of Cubs baseball. Friday’s game was particularly anomalous, with both teams combining to score 21 runs in the 7th and 8th innings. It was the first time in Wrigley Field’s history that 10 or more runs were scored by each team in two innings of play, and we’re talking 110 years of history. Rather than get further into the overall outcomes of any individual games, I want to look specifically at one batted-ball outcome.

Despite a wealth of information and familiarity, there remains a not-insignificant portion of the population that rejects the idea of measuring exit velocity and launch angle. While I kind of understand the (faulty) logic behind this thinking, it’s basically the same thing as preferring simply to say the weather is either hot or cold rather than checking the actual temperature. Empirical facts can’t simply be ignored because they’re inconvenient for you, but I think part of the issue is that people are intimidated by what they perceive to be “advanced metrics.”

In point of fact, launch angle and exit velocity are not new. Ted Williams was all about hitting the ball hard (EV) and in the air (LA); we just didn’t have a way to measure those things several decades ago. Think about it like being able to watch baseball with a high-definition picture and high frame rates capable of showing us the spin of the seams on different pitches. The game is still the same, we’re just able to examine it more closely.

And maybe that’s the issue; some folks, understandably so, lament how magic has become science. Hence, you have people who feel it doesn’t matter how hard you hit the ball. True though that may be with an individual event, it’s clear that hitting it harder will yield better results the larger the sample becomes. That’s why Ian Happ came away with nothing to show for a 112 mph liner — his hardest batted ball of the year so far — leading off the 11th.

There have been 60 balls hit that hard so far this season, 47 of which went for hits. That’s good for a .783 batting average and 1.112 wOBA, marks that are slightly higher than last year. Happ only hit his ball at a 5-degree launch angle, dropping its expected batting average to a measly .690 that still looks a helluva lot better than a double-play right to the shortstop. Stupid Manfred Man.

Would an 85 mph duck snort that landed over the shortstop’s head have been better for Happ and the Cubs at that moment? Sure, but the .183 average and .190 wOBA on that below-average EV would yield a poor result far more often than not. Focusing on results over process can put us in bad spots, both in terms of performance and evaluation. In this particular case, Happ did everything right. One could almost argue that it was a perfect batted ball.

Contrary to old axioms about letting the pitcher do the work, bat speed has roughly six times the correlation to EV as pitch speed. The respective coefficients are 1.2 and 0.2, with allowances for various factors and the understanding that those numbers are not as clean as I made them. That means Happ’s 74.4 mph swing accounted for approximately 89.3 mph of EV and the 98.2 mph fastball from Drey Jameson contributed roughly 19.6 mph. Given that the max EV for those conditions using my calculations is only around 109 mph, we know that a) the math isn’t perfect, and b) Happ caught a perfect-perfect barrel.

These statistics aren’t meant to tell the story, only to better inform it by quantifying what happens on the field to a greater degree than we’ve previously had access to. It’s fine if that isn’t your jam and you’d prefer to rely on batting average and ERA to tell the story, but I think it’s important to keep offering context to those who may not have been exposed to it yet.

When will Cade Horton debut?

The Cubs recently lost one of their top two pitchers for at least the rest of this season and they’ve struggled to find consistent performance from the bullpen. That obviously raises the question about when they will see fit to promote top pitching prospect Cade Horton, who just made his third start of 2025 for the Iowa Cubs a few days ago.

I was there for his season debut, a rain-soaked affair in Indianapolis that saw Horton punch out five batters despite the wet conditions. Through three starts totalling 12.1 innings, Horton has 18 strikeouts and 10 walks, with just two runs allowed on five hits. Batters are hitting just .132 against him so far, which is what happens when you throw 98 mph with a wipeout slider.

My contention is that Horton should be in Chicago as quickly as possible because there’s no reason to waste innings in the minors given the decidedly non-zero injury risk. The Cubs, however, are in no hurry. That’s based on several factors, including but not limited to: the need to build up his workload after an abbreviated season, Colin Rea pitching well, Javier Assad returning soon, and Horton not being on the 40-man roster.

“The best thing that’s happening with Cade right now is he’s taking the ball every six days,” Craig Counsell told reporters over the weekend. “Just keep taking the ball. Keep developing. Keep improving. And we’ll see where that gets us sometime in the middle of the summer. I think Cade needs to pitch. I think there’s mound time that’s really important to him.”

I have no knowledge of what innings target the Cubs have set for Horton, but I’d guess they don’t want him pushing much past 100, if even that far. Justin Steele didn’t eclipse the triple-digit mark as a pro until 2022, a function of injuries and the Cubs downshifting with relief work in ’21. He had three stints in Chicago that season, the first two of which lasted only around three weeks apiece and came in a relief role. Then he stretched back out in Iowa and made nine starts across August and September.

It makes sense for Horton to be used in the same way, especially given the way the bullpen has performed. Being able to throttle his innings while giving him a taste of the bigs this summer could help player and team alike, then they can see about having him start down the stretch, depending on workload and health. The Cubs are intent on slow-playing things with Horton, but the strategy could be sped up a little if a 60-day IL designation opens a roster spot without needing to cut anyone loose.

Cubs up to No. 4 in power rankings

The Cubs have climbed the ladder and now sit behind the Dodgers, Padres, and Mets in MLB Network’s latest power rankings. That’s the good news. The bad news is that they’ve still got to play the Dodgers two more times this week before welcoming the Phillies (No. 5), and they have to host the Giants (No. 7) in early May. They’ve already played two series against the Padres and Diamondbacks (No. 9), plus one series against the Rangers (No. 10).

The top 10 teams from last week’s team power rankings shuffle in this week’s! ? pic.twitter.com/0PYqFICT0G

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) April 21, 2025

They’ve been playing very good baseball and I expect that to continue, but there’s a concern — whether founded or not — that going through this early ringer could leave them susceptible to trap games later in May. Let’s just focus on the next game for now, no need to spend so much effort looking at the future that you trip over the present.

That’s all for now, sorry if I rambled a bit.