Quantifying Hope: Cubs at 85% Odds Following St. Louis Split

The Cubs’ playoff odds dropped as low as 76% before rebounding to just over 85% with back-to-back wins against the Cardinals in St. Louis. The only problem is that the Brewers have also won their last two and have gained two games in the standings over the last 10 contests. As a result, their playoff odds have surged by nearly 16% since last Friday.

What is now just a three-game division lead looks very precarious with the Cubs in Houston and the Brewers hosting the Rockies over the weekend. Do I have to add that the North Siders just threw their two best starters to get those shutout wins against the Cards? I guess I just did, so sorry if that works out to the equivalent of peeing in your Cheerios.

They’re going to need a very strong effort from Cade Horton in Friday’s series opener, then a better effort than they’ve gotten from Colin Rea over most of the last month. Jameson Taillon had been on a run of excellence before hitting the skids in his last two starts, with 13 total earned runs allowed over just four innings of work in each. He has given up 21 homers on the season, making those Crawford Boxes in right field look even more inviting to Astros hitters.

There’s no such thing as a must-win series in June, but this does feel like a must-not-lose set for the Cubs as they look to set themselves up for a sprint to the All-Star break. Jed Hoyer is scouring the trade market for pitching reinforcements and possibly another right-handed bat, and it’s possible he’ll get out in front of the deadline rush with an early addition.

The only problem is that he’s not really in a position of leverage for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that the list of sellers hasn’t been solidified. Two-thirds of the teams are still within two games of .500, making the postseason a realistic goal with so much time still left in the season. Hoyer has always operated in stealth mode, though, so we’ll see if he’s got another surprise or two up his sleeve.