Owen Caissie Provides Spark, Chance to Rest Struggling Sluggers
Owen Caissie has been on a tear at Triple-A Iowa for a while now, leading many to question why he wasn’t called up earlier. The reason for that is simple, as there would have been no point in promoting the lefty-batting slugger just to sit on the bench behind three other (mostly) lefty-batting outfielders. An argument could be made for Caissie to spell Seiya Suzuki at times, but that would still mean having the top prospect ride the pine most of the time. But between Miguel Amaya‘s unfortunate injury and prolonged slumps from several key offensive stars, the time is right.
The question is whether the Cubs are looking at this as a reward promotion, a way to give Caissie a pressure-free taste of the big league life, or as a way to spark the offense. It could be a bit of both, with Caissie coming up in a part-time role that gives him a chance to prove himself. Given the way Suzuki and Kyle Tucker have been hitting lately, it might also be a way to give those guys more of a break than they’d otherwise get at this point in the season.
A lot of you probably thought I was going to throw Ian Happ in that mix as well, but, despite what social media will tell you, he’s been one of the Cubs’ best hitters in the second half. Happ’s four homers since the break are tied for second on the team (Matt Shaw – 8), and his 111 wRC+ trails only Shaw (214) and Nico Hoerner (112). And though his .227 average surely has old-schoolers up in arms, he’s 27 points higher than Tucker in that category. Tucker is still reaching base at an extraordinary .364 clip despite the lack of hitting, so he’s way ahead of Happ there.
At the root of concerns about Tucker’s performance is the idea that he may yet be battling a finger injury suffered on a slide into second base back on June 1. He left that game early and sat out only one more, but there’s a stark disparity in his numbers before and after the incident. Through that win over the Reds, Tucker was slashing .284/.394/.524 with 12 homers, a .240 ISO, and a 153 wRC+ in 269 plate appearances. Since returning to the lineup, he’s at .248/.365/.391 with six homers, a .144 ISO, and a 118 wRC+ in 244 PAs.
If we narrow things down to the second half, Tucker is at .200/.364/.271 with one homer, a .071 ISO, and a 96 wRC+ in 90 trips to the plate. Were it not for his 18.9% walk rate, he’d be unplayable. While the batting average stands out, I’m far more worried about the precipitous drop in power. League average ISO — a measure of raw power — is at .157 for this season, so Tucker went from about 80 points above to 20 below using the finger injury as an inflection point.
What’s more, he’s been hitting the ball in the air less and on the ground more with fewer pulled balls. That’s not a good thing.
Thru 6/1: 48.7% fly; 28.7% ground; 48.2% pull, 21% oppo
Since 6/1: 42.9% fly; 36% ground; 42% pull; 19.1% oppo
Since ASG: 35.7% fly; 39.3% ground; 42.1% pull; 15.8% oppo
I was thinking this might be an issue of decreased bat speed, but Tucker’s numbers there have remained almost the same. We’re talking two-tenths of a tick slower, though his swing has gotten longer by 0.1 feet at the same time. Those seemingly minuscule differences could be impacting his contact profile. Whatever the case, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to give Tucker a few more days off than usual.
The same is true for Suzuki, who was on pace for what would have easily been the best season of his career. His 25 homers in the first half established a new high for a full year, and his 137 wRC+ matched his mark from 2024. But with only two homers and a 78 wRC+ since the break, it’s looking like he could use some time to facilitate a mental and physical reset. That could be particularly useful against tough righty pitchers.
Caissie gives Craig Counsell the ability to rotate some of those regular starters to the bench more regularly without an IL stint or the difficult optics of being benched for poor performance. There’s less pressure on the rookie because he’s not being asked to serve as the everyday starter in any one spot, so he should be able to play free and easy…to whatever extent that’s possible.
The big caveat here is that we can’t go heaping all kinds of expectations on him. Sure, it’s possible he carries that power stroke up with him and crushes right out of the gate. It’s equally possible he offers no improvement whatsoever. Either way, Caissie provides more depth for players who could probably use a break while also providing that emotional spark that comes with any rookie debut.
