Ian Happ Bouncing Back from Bad Luck
I should have learned from the backlash to the article earlier this season about Dansby Swanson‘s bad luck, but I’m just a glutton for punishment. But just as Swanson has bounced back from a period in which his results didn’t match up with expected metrics, Ian Happ has struggled through dissonance between his process and the results. That’s starting to turn this month, which has been his best of the season to date, but it’ll probably never be enough to get the Philistines to stop calling him Crapp.
Happ’s .231/.331/.393 slash line isn’t very impressive and his 106 wRC+ is near a career low, but his .352 xWOBA is the second-highest he’s ever had. I’m not going to bother explaining that particular metric because those who need to be reached by this logic will just dismiss it anyway. So why am I even writing this at all? Because I can. And also because I’m stalling rather than going on what could be a long bike ride.
With that in mind, I’ll just keep this short so we can all go about our respective days. CHGO’s Brendan Miller noted that Happ has 44 batted balls of 100+ mph that have resulted in outs, and he’s got another 76 squared/hard outs. Balls hit that hard carry a .408 average at a minimum, and it jumps to over .600 at 105 mph and higher. That means Happ could very easily have gotten hits on a quarter of those batted balls, as Miller notes.
Ian Happ has 44 batted balls over 100 MPH for outs and 76 squared/hard outs.
If even a quarter fell as hits—just slightly different angles or wind—he’d be having his best season.
Results matter, but frankly I didn’t realize he was hitting into a lot of bad luck. pic.twitter.com/ujWamXILZW
— Brendan Miller (@brendan_cubs) August 30, 2025
Adding another 30 hits would put the left fielder at a .295 average for the season while boosting his OBP near .400 and improving his slugging percentage to at least his .444 career average. Hell, make it 15 hits and his stat line looks significantly better. Happ’s homer in Friday’s win got his August wRC+ up to 118, making it his best month of the season so far. Two more games in Colorado could inflate it further, especially if he’s able to get some more of those hard his to fall.
We’ll see how Happ finishes the season, but getting even a little more good fortune should see him with yet another positive season at the plate. He has been walking at a high rate and striking out less than ever, so generating a little more pop in September not only makes him look better, it significantly improves the Cubs’ postseason outlook.
