Quantifying Hope: Cubs at 99.9% Following ATL Series Win
The Cubs are on the cusp of securing a postseason berth after first guaranteeing a winning record and then tying their mark from each of the last two seasons with back-to-back wins to close their series against the Braves. They even picked up two games on the Brewers, who were swept by the Rangers and have lost six of their last 10 games. With a 3.5-game cushion over the Padres and nine over the Reds, the Cubs need only avoid an implosion over the next 16 games.
Completely falling apart isn’t impossible, it’s just incredibly unlikely. Even some weaknesses could end up becoming strengths if all goes according to plan on the injury front. Daniel Palencia is said to be feeling better and could resume throwing soon, which could have him rested and much sharper for the postseason. Miguel Amaya is likewise expected back before long. Michael Soroka touched 96 mph in his rehab start for the I-Cubs, and he’ll give the Cubs another very strong multi-inning reliever to pair with Aaron Civale.
They’ve also got Javier Assad in a similar role following Jameson Taillon‘s return from the IL, though I’m not so sure I trust the Ass Man against a playoff opponent. However, he will likely be a valuable piece of their stretch strategy by eating up innings to give starters a break. I also believe having to use so many different options in the 9th inning gives Craig Counsell more versatility when it comes to deploying his relievers.
For instance, would-be closer Brad Keller came on in the 8th inning to face the top of the Braves’ order with a one-run lead. Deadline acquisition Andrew Kittredge then got the ball in the 9th to close out his third save as a Cub. With Porter Hodge also looking much better of late, the Cubs have a strong back end even if Palencia isn’t ready to return by early October.
Even though it was against an opponent that has been among the most disappointing teams in recent memory, getting that win on Wednesday felt playoff-ish. The Cubs fell behind early against one of the best pitchers in the game, then battled back to take a narrow lead before holding on to win a game in which scoring was at a premium. We can still worry about getting only three runs out of 11 hits, but those are the types of games contenders need to win.
Though the Cubs technically can’t secure a postseason berth this weekend, they can get awfully close to doing so by taking care of business against the Rays. If all goes well, next week’s QH will be the last of the season.
