The Rundown: Team USA’s Schwarber Back to Philly, Díaz Gets Nice Deal from Dodgers, Cubs Remain Committed to Pitching Pursuit

The Winter Meetings have generally been slower over the last half-decade or so than what a lot of us were used to, largely due to the pandemic and the increasing ubiquity of virtual communication. It used to be that you pretty much had to be in the same room as someone to get a deal done, but that’s obviously no longer the case. And while there are still deals being brokered in Orlando, it was starting to feel like the fuse that was lit when the World Series ending still had quite a ways to go before creating an explosion.

That could be hastening, however, as Jeff Passan reports that Kyle Schwarber is returning to Philly on a five-year deal worth $150 million. Ken Rosenthal had previously reported that the former Cub received a four-year, $120 million offer from the Pirates, a deal that would have more than tripled their previous high for a free agent. The AAV was right, but there’s no way Schwarber was going to touch that to play for a team that doesn’t figure to contend in the near future.

News of Schwarber’s payday came soon after he was announced as a member of Team USA in the 2026 World Baseball Classic, where he’ll join Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matthew Boyd, and others. More roster announcements are available below in the News and Notes section. Back to Schwarber, who has established himself as one of the game’s premier sluggers since being non-tendered by the Cubs following a supremely disappointing 2020 campaign.

Revisionist history is a sonofabitch when evaluating Jed Hoyer’s decision to jettison Schwarber for nothing in return but fond memories, but the dude slashed .188/.308/.393 with a .204 ISO and a 91 wRC+ in the pandemic season. Those are all the worst numbers of his career, particularly the slugging mark. Schwarber is a two-trick pony who can mash and get on base, so doing so at levels roughly 40 and 100 points below his career norms was alarming.

And as much as I’d have liked for Hoyer to create a new narrative by bringing Schwarber back to the North Side, there’s absolutely no way in hell the Cubs were dropping $30 million AAV on a DH. It’s hard enough to see them blowing through what could be more than 60% of their available budget on a position player like Alex Bregman, let alone someone with zero positional flexibility.

Even if the Cubs had been willing to push to that level for Schwarber, he surely would have realized that Wrigley Field isn’t as conducive to his lefty thump. Only four NL ballparks are worse in terms of expected homers, and two of them — PNC Park and Busch Stadium — are in the NL Central. Citizens Bank Park, on the other hand, is second only to Great American Ball Park across all of MLB in terms of its favorability.

Not only is he being paid more handsomely than any projections I’ve seen, but he’s getting a better chance to secure his legacy by reaching the 500-homer club. With 340 to his credit, he needs to average only 32 a year over the life of this new deal to get there. For reference, 32 is his low-water mark over the last five seasons. Even with age-based regression, he should still be able to put them over the fence in his mid-30s.

Díaz to Dodgers

I was just talking with my Mets-fan dermatologist this morning about not ruling his team out from signing former closer Edwin Díaz even after they’d landed Devin Williams. Someone in Southern California must have been violating my HIPAA rights, because the Dodgers jumped on Díaz this morning with a very nice deal that pays him $69 million over three years.

The $23 million AAV is a new record for a reliever, breaking the old mark of $20.4 million set by…Díaz on the contract he just opted out of. Unless it’s just a matter of delayed reporting, and that is often the case for these contract figures, that figure means there’s no deferred money involved. That’s interesting only in that the Dodgers have become the kings of holiday layaway purchases.

Red Sox Openly Willing to Deal Young Pitchers

By acquiring Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates, the Red Sox have solidified a rotation that already featured Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. That means CBO Craig Breslow has a lot of young starters vying for just one spot. They certainly won’t be trading all of them away, but Breslow was very transparent about his plans.

“We’ve got pitching depth, based on some of the inbound calls that we’ve received over the last couple of weeks,” Breslow told MassLive’s Sean McAdam. “I think teams have recognized there’s appeal to controllable starting pitching. If there are opportunities to use some of that depth in order to address other areas of the roster, we’d be willing to do it.”

Given their budget and the cost of impact arms in free agency, the Cubs are going to be actively exploring trades to bolster their own rotation. They were rumored to have been very interested in MacKenzie Gore, though talks seem to have cooled for one reason or another. There’s obviously a relationship between Hoyer and Breslow from their time together in Chicago, so it seems like a near certainty that tires will be kicked at the very least.

Potentially available pitchers include Kutter Crawford, Kyle Harrison, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, and Patrick Sandoval, though we’re talking about a wide range of acquisition costs due to age, control, and projections. Tolle and Early seem particularly unlikely to be moved, what with them being ranked at No. 2 and No. 4 in Boston’s system.

Cubs Still Prioritizing Pitching

This kind of goes without saying, but I felt it worthwhile to reinforce Hoyer’s plans for the offseason.

“I think we’ll add starting pitching,” Hoyer told Bruce Levine on Tuesday. “We’ll add a lot of pitching in general this winter. Whether it’s through trade or whether it’s through free agency, I don’t know yet. We’re active in both, and I think that’s the most important thing. To cover all your bases, make sure you’re involved in all these different markets and find the best combination of value and talent.”

Sahadev Sharma told Foul Territory the Cubs are “willing to take a small step back on offense if it means they have pitching,” which tracks with what we’re seeing and hearing from them. That could mean Hoyer was indeed being entirely earnest in his comments about Matt Shaw and their position-player targets.

Other News and Notes

• Lefty Stephen Matz signed a two-year deal with the Rays
• Tread Athletics’ Pro Day is coming up in about a month, and they have an estimated 150 pitchers participating. The Cubs were very active last year when it came to signing guys out of that event, and they figure to be again with former Tread guru Tyler Zombro overseeing their minor league pitching development. Heck, they’ve already added righty Sam Mettert after he threw 99+ at a Tread bullpen earlier this winter.
• In addition to Schwarber, Team USA announced Tuesday that Brice Turang, Gunnar Henderson, and Will Smith have joined the roster.
• Per Levine, Zac Gallen was actually in Cabo getting married when the erroneous report about him finalizing a deal with the Cubs came out. Maybe Bob Nightengale heard Gallen was getting ready to sign a contract in Cabo and just got confused.
• A little birdy told me we may be getting a parachute piece from everyone’s favorite retired Rundown writer. Stay tuned.

TV Recs

I’m running late already, so here’s the quick and dirty:

• Landman – Billy Bob Thornton playing a version of himself as a Texas oil company exec; this may be the Platonic ideal of Taylor Sheridan, which is saying something considering his oeuvre.
• Tulsa King – Another Sheridan show with a cast of misfits led by Sly Stallone.
• The Chair Company – Tim Robinson’s absurdist humor at its best, with a final episode that will make you wonder if you’re high.
• Stranger Things – On a list replete with very much on-the-radar suggestions, this is still blatant. That said, I love how they’re releasing the final season in installments. You’ve surely noticed how we’ve swung back to the days of appointment viewing, with streamers now releasing new episodes on a weekly basis rather than dropping whole seasons. ST is changing that mold further, with four eps on Thanksgiving, three on Christmas Eve, and the finale on New Year’s Eve. The capper will also have a limited theatrical run for a communal experience.