Japanese Infielder Kazuma Okamoto in US for Meetings with Interested Teams

According to a report from Yahoo Japan, infielder Kazuma Okamoto is in the US to meet with teams as he nears the end of his 45-day posting window. He’s got less than a week left before his decision is due, so it’s safe to assume the pool of suitors is relatively small. The Angels, Blue Jays, Padres, Pirates, and Red Sox have all been strongly connected to Okamoto, with the Cubs and Diamondbacks also being mentioned as possibilities. If you’ve been following the Alex Bregman saga, you probably noticed the significant overlap in interested parties.

Both players are represented by Scott Boras, who also counts Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai among his roster of high-profile clients. This is a very interesting situation because Bregman is viewed as the bigger prize, but he also has the freedom to wait and see what happens with his colleague. Likewise, teams with interest in both might not be as willing to bid big on Okamoto if it costs them a shot at Bregman.

That could benefit the Angels, who aren’t in the running for Bregman’s services. The Pirates are in that same boat, but they just signed Ryan O’Hearn to the biggest free agent position player contract in team history and probably aren’t looking to spend a bunch more. The Padres could play Okamoto at first, though they just re-signed Michael King despite reports that they were again looking to trim salary this winter.

Then there’s the matter of Okamoto’s market, which appears to be doing exactly the opposite of fellow NPB import Munetaka Murakami. Initially viewed as the far more valuable talent due to his power, Murakami’s defensive shortcomings and poor contact numbers led to him taking what amounts to a prove-it deal with the White Sox. Projections for Okamoto came in around one-half to one-third of what his countryman was expected to earn, but those could end up being reversed.

Given the number of teams reportedly courting him, a four-year deal worth $16-18 million annually seems like a pretty safe bet. Likewise, Okamoto seems like a safer bet than Murakami due to better contact quality and more defensive acumen/versatility. The upside is lower because Okamoto is four years older and doesn’t have elite power, so he should still end up closer to the projections.

This has all the markings of another situation in which the Cubs will be involved until bidding reaches their prescribed level. The same is almost certainly true for Imai. If those markets fail to materialize, just as we saw recently with Murakami and two years ago with Shōta Imanaga, the Cubs could end up making a play for what they perceive as a great value. But if demand drives the prices up, Jed Hoyer will have no problem backing out.

I know most folks just assume the Cubs will finish as also-rans, but it feels like Boras may have lost his fastball and could end up overplaying his hand. We’ll know about Imai by Friday and Okamoto by Sunday, at which point the market should gain a little more steam across the board.