The Rundown: Pitchers & Catchers Eve, Projecting Extensions for PCA & Hoerner, O’s Unveil New Training Facility

Though many of us first heard it in English director Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight, the proverb, “It’s always darkest before dawn,” is attributed to English theologian Thomas Fuller. Maybe time worked differently in the 17th century, because I have always found it much darker in the middle of the night. Ah, but Fuller was speaking metaphorically about how things have to get worse before they get better.

That is the case for a great many baseball fans right now, particularly Cubs fans. For quite some time now, we’ve had nothing other than rumors and news of early Mesa arrivals to tide us over ahead of spring training. The good news is that I can just see the first rays of sunlight breaking over the eastern horizon, as pitchers and catchers officially report tomorrow. The first full-squad workout is five days later, and the first game is on February 20 against the White Sox.

Depending on how things break, I may be in Arizona the following weekend. Aiding my escape from the winter doldrums are the sunshine and rising temperatures that have our piles of snow ceding ground at a rapid pace. The high school baseball team is actually conducting a workout on the football field this afternoon, though that’s not nearly enough of a fix for my baseball jones. I’m really hoping the advent of spring baseball gets me in a better state of mind for more than just a day or two.

Rather than whining (again) about the state of things here or with the space we occupy in general, I’ll just say that it’s going to be really good to have some action on the fields again. Speculation can only take you so far, and it feels as though we’ve been pulling on this particular piece of taffy for far too long. And given the reduced number of voices around here, I fear I’ve been forcing you all to listen to the same tune being whistled with increasing flatness over the last several weeks.

As much as I enjoy the videos from bullpens and batting practice, it’ll be so refreshing to start getting even the most limited data from these workouts. Or to see live at-bats on the backfields. Speaking of which, there’s nothing like strolling the path to the training fields at the Cubs’ Sloan Park facilities and hearing multiple rounds of BP taking place all at once. The light burble of combined voices is white noise punctuated by the crack of maple on horsehide, equal parts soothing and invigorating.

Maybe Fuller was really onto something, as time does seem to grow more languid when you’re not beholden to it as a function of necessity. When we measure our days in terms of innings rather than minutes, they become all the more malleable in our willing hands. If, that is, we’re truly able to unplug. Great for the soul, but not so good for a content mine laborer.

Extension Projections for PCA, Hoerner

With all of their acquisitions presumably done and lots of money falling off the books after this season, the Cubs’ focus may turn to extensions for at least two of their key contributors. While there could be conversations with Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and others, most of the attention of late has gone to Nico Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong. The former is finishing out the final year of a three-year, $35 million deal, while the latter is entering his second full season after turning down a reported $75-90 million offer last year.

“The communication’s been really great throughout all levels of this conversation,” Crow-Armstrong told reporters in April of 2025. “But there’s been a general understanding and a general consensus that we’re not going to let it be a distraction throughout this year, because I’m here to play baseball.”

There was a point at which it looked like the Cubs were going to have to double that number to lock down a player who finished the first half as an MVP candidate, but PCA’s performance cooled down the stretch. Still, he’s perhaps the game’s best center fielder with the potential to be a high-level hitter as well. Those players don’t come around very often, and they have to be paid handsomely.

Working in the Cubs’ favor is their club control, which runs for four more years after this one. Buying out PCA’s arbitration years means getting a discounted rate on at least three of those seasons, pending his raises in that time. Of course, they also have to push the deal out far enough to buy out multiple years of his would-be free agency, so anything short of five years makes no sense. Sahadev Sharma noted Corbin Carroll‘s eight-year, $111 million extension as a comp, and that seems fair.

Carroll signed that deal partway into his first year, meaning the Cubs might need to go a little higher to make it work. How about seven years at $126 million with escalators and a club option for an eighth year at $25 million? That would take Crow-Armstrong through his age-30 or 31 season at either $18 million or $19 million AAV, at which point he could still land a significant deal in free agency.

It seems a little light when you put it that way, but there’s something to be said for securing the bag in the face of so much uncertainty. Hoerner is in a very different situation in terms of age, experience, and potential, making his projection a little more difficult. I could have sworn I’d already covered a hypothetical Hoerner deal, which is pretty difficult given the timing, but it looks like I may have stopped short of throwing out a number.

How does five years at $95-$105 million sound? That’s only $19-21 million AAV, but it’s at least a 69% raise over his current salary and would get him through his age-33 season. As good an all-around player as Hoerner has been for the Cubs, his lack of power could be glaring when it comes to commanding a contract further into the land of nine figures. Perhaps he’d prefer not to deal with the looming mess of a lockout and CBA changes.

I could certainly see a longer deal for more money, but this is where my mind went out of the gate. Hoerner seems like the kind of player whose actual value won’t be as widely recognized by the rest of the league, and he’s a perfect fit with the Cubs. Getting something done with him and punting “new” month to next year could be good for both sides.

The same is true for PCA, though there’s not as much urgency with him due to the extended club control. Both of these players are no-brainer extension targets, but their respective circumstances are also complicated enough to make deals difficult to work out. I’d say the likelihood of either getting done this spring is a coin flip.

More News and Notes

• Former Cub Aaron Civale has signed a one-year deal with the A’s for a guaranteed $6 million. As you may recall, Civale demanded a trade out of Milwaukee after being replaced by rookie phenom Jacob Misiorowski. That saw him exiled to the South Side before a trade to the Cubs gave him a chance for redemption against his old team.
• Former Cub Ryan Brasier has landed a minor league deal with the Rangers.
• Former Ranger Jonah Heim has been spotted at Braves camp after reportedly inking a one-year deal that will presumably see him backing up Drake Baldwin, who should have finished second to Cade Horton in NL Rookie of the Year voting. Baldwin got the gig after veteran Sean Murphy suffered a torn labrum from which he is still working his way back.
• The Orioles have unveiled a new, state-of-the-art player development facility at their Sarasota complex, complete with a 40-yard football field. President of baseball ops Mike Elias said it “may be the best indoor hitting facility in the world,” though Driveline’s Kyle Boddy, who knows a little something about elite facilities, noted that such a setup is very common in Japan.
• For as much as we talk about it, player development remains a nebulous concept here in the States. Many prep and travel programs — either out of ignorance, obfuscation, or flat-out deception — conflate improved competitive outcomes with process-based advances. Player development is not bringing better athletes onto a team, and it’s not a matter of playing in more tournaments against tougher opponents.
• True development should be transparent, individualized, and incremental. There should be no cookie-cutters or quick fixes, though it’s possible to see significant jumps in performance with athletes who are exposed to the right stimuli. That’s more typical at younger ages, when the delta is much higher.
• Given how MLB is democratizing in-game data collection and tech, I would think every organization should be investing heavily in its own setups. The Cubs have been out in front of this for a while now, and broke ground on improvements to their hitting and pitching labs after camp closed last year.
• I’m seeing more and more investment in tech among travel outfits as well, with one “rival” facility to ours recently adding a Trackman to keep up with the Joneses. I believe that makes three facilities in the Indy metro area that are now equipped with Trackman, which is two more than there were a year ago.
• ICYMI, Alex Bregman partnered with Marucci on a top-notch setup in Scottsdale for pros to do their offseason work.

Trailer Time

I enjoyed the latest Disclosure Day trailer for two reasons: 1) Stephen Freaking Spielberg directed and co-produced the movie; 2) little is revealed about the plot. All we really know is that it’s another UFO movie from someone who already has a masterpiece in that sub-genre to his credit. All we really know for certain is that this film is about humanity coping with the reality of extraterrestrial life.

If you found out we weren’t alone, if someone showed you, proved it to you, would that frighten you?